"Memphis will end up undefeated at the end of the regular season, but will fail to make the Final 4 because they are not prepared for the tourney grind playing in the weak Conference USA."

Oy. If I had a nickel for every time I've heard that cliche this year. Thing is, people spout that like it's gospel, but nobody's ever actually done a study and proved or disproved the notion that great teams in weak conferences do poorly in the NCAAs. I seem to recall St. Joe's, UNLV, and Memphis themselves as data points against that theory in recent years.

I actually think that Memphis WILL stumble once in C-USA play, but will make the Final Four anyway.

A few other thoughts.

- Tennessee I think is a longshot to make the Final Four. They look good when everything's going right, and are arguably the most athletic team in the country, but they play like a bunch of knuckleheads and their poor decision-making and shot selection will trip them up in the NCAA.

- Florida is crap. They have a 17-3 record because they haven't played anyone. They might do as Clemson did last year, and miss the NCAA despite a phenomenal mid-season record.

- Washington State, despite losing at Arizona tonight, is for real. They probably have as good a chance of making the Final Four as anyone.

- Just a hunch, but Kentucky will end the season with an NCAA resume as good (or almost as good) as Minnesota's.

- Texas has the best starting five in the country, by a wide margin. They'd be a Final Four favorite if they had any depth at all.

- Gonzaga is going to be a better team in March than their record indicates, due to the return of Heytvelt and the late emergence of freshmen Gray and Daye.

- Usual multi-bid contenders WAC, Mountain West, and C-USA will be one-bid leagues, while the MVC, WCC, and especially A-10 will get multiple bids.

To date, some All-America picks:

First Team
G DJ Augustin, Texas
G Eric Gordon, Indiana
F Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis
F Tyler Hansbrough, UNC
C Kevin Love, UCLA

Second Team
G Eric Gordon, Indiana
G Kyle Weaver, Washington State
F Richard Hendrix, Alabama
F Michael Beasley, Kansas State
C Roy Hibbert, Georgetown

The only reason that Florida may not pull a Clemson and that Kentucky will pull out a decent record is because of the mediocrity of the SEC this year. That is also why Tennessee will not be sufficiently tested to make the final 4 this year (that was a little joke, they won't make the final 4 because they have looked awful against any team with the ability to hold onto the ball and play with discipline).

I'll make a (probably stupid) suggestion for your second team: How about a true point guard to run the offense? A guy like Mike Green from Butler who has a well-rounded game (check out his rebound numbers the last two years).

I would put Derek Rose (of Memphis) on my second team all-american list. He's dynamite and has been the best point guard I've seen this year. Having said that I'm not crazy about a frosh point guard in the tourney.

Tennessee's style makes them really hard to match-up with in a tourney, especially when you have only 1 day to prepare. If they get past the sweet 16 game, they will be tough to stop in the Elite 8. They are a donut team, but in college b-ball this isn't such a major problem.

I know Florida has played a weak schedule, but Donovan is such a great coach they will make the tourney. The SEC isn't as weak as being stated here.

I watched Wisconsin beat Texas in Austin. A disciplined team like the Badgers gives them fits.

Washington State runs the Dick Bennett style which gives great teams fits, but also gives cinderella teams a chance to compete.

Gonzaga has went from overachiever to underachiever status in the tourney over the past few years. The competition in the WCC has greatly approved (hard to believe the Pepperdine could have become the worst team in the league), but I still think they will struggle against more physical teams.

3 St. Joe's and Memphis both made the Final 8, though, as I recall. Is there something about the fourth round that dooms teams from mid-major conferences?

However, the team out of the Pac to watch is Washington St. Their tournament existence will rely completely on the matchups of their draw. But if they get a lot of individual-oriented teams (read: Memphis) they will shut them down. The thing about this Wazzu team that is different from the Dick Bennett teams is that they're actually offensively talented. I wouldn't want to play them.

Final Four - UCLA, Wazzu, UNC, Kansas