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Shadchen
2004-01-21 06:45
by Will Carroll

Yeah, let's see who gets THAT title ... (Alex Belth, you're disqualified!)

Ok, let's take a look at the trade that will not die, the A-Rod to Red Sox deal, through a deal that makes sense for everyone, through the filter of VORP, predicted by PECOTA.

Red Sox deal: Manny (57.1), Nomar (52.1)
Red Sox get: A-Rod (83.2), Magglio (40.8)
Net: Gain 14 (adding A-Rod is a good thing. Duh.)

Rangers deal: A-Rod (83.2)
Rangers get: Manny (57.1)
Net: Lose 26 (but save significant money)

White Sox deal: Magglio (40.8)
White Sox get: Erstad (1.5), Washburn (23)
Net: Lose 17 (who knew Erstad sucked this bad? Anderson would be a significantly better fit at 26).

Angels deal: Erstad (1.5), Washburn (23)
Angels get: Nomar (52.1)
Net: Gain 18 (Again, might use Anderson instead of Erstad due to defense, but this one works better and keeps the dreaded luxury tax away. Why Erstad? He'll be a bad first baseman, the money, and Glaus will need to move to first.)

Looking at this for only one year is pretty short sighted and not dealing with the money is pretty unrealistic as well, but I'll save the bigger analysis for the better analysts. The Rangers and White Sox come out behind, but the Rangers are in this to save money and the White Sox don't think they can keep Magglio. No one gets brutally screwed in any sense. I'm beginning to think this will happen at the deadline rather than pre-season unless Hicks gets more desperate than I think he is.

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