Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
scott@scottlongonline.com
In another example of how fast a baseball team can fall-apart, the White Sox and Astros are facing each other in inner-league play this weekend. These 2 squads have went from playing each other in the 2005 World Series to appearing like Central division also-rans.
The past month for both teams has been brutal, with the Astros losing 16 of 21, while the White Sox have lost 11 of 13. If you thought the White Sox were going to be good or not in 2007, the way they are tanking has to be a surprise to you. The team's lack of offense is pretty remarkable, as only Jim Thome is a plus player this season at the plate. For almost the whole team to have career low type numbers at this point of the year is striking (out) for a veteran team.
The bullpen was a bit of mystery going into the year, but it has been a disaster since the beginning of May. The White Sox have had a major turnover in the pen, with only Bobby Jenks left from the World Championship team. With the downward direction the team has gone, you would think that GM Kenny Williams must have really whiffed in the past off-season. Amazingly, the moves he made look good.
So far it would appear that the White Sox gave up little, whlle managing to dump a big contract (Garcia's) and in return picked up 40% of their 2008 starting rotation (Danks and Gonzalez). Signed a solid veteran centerfielder for 1 million bucks (Erstad) who has been the only true stolen base threat on the team. Dealt players who didn't fit into the Sox future for high potential power arms.
As bad as the offense has been, the White Sox real trouble is trying to get from their quality starting pitching to their top-notch closer in Jenks. This is where Williams made his biggest mistake, as he doesn't have one consistent veteran arm in the bullpen. In 2005, the Sox bullpen featured 4 relievers 30 year-old or better in Dustin Hermanson, Cliff Politte, Damaso Marte, and Luis Vizcaino. Unlike these 4 relievers, the only 2 veteran pitchers the Sox had on their 2007 staff are Matt Thornton and Mike MacDougal, who have both spent most of their careers struggling to find the plate.
The 2007 White Sox have needed a couple of solid veteran relievers to stabilize their pen, but there was no Orosco/Stanton types on the roster. Sure it is great to have young, low-cost bullpen like the Twins or A's, but even these teams have a Nathan or Embree who provide a real veteran presence. This point might not be very sabermetrical, but to be successful in the long-term, some veteran presence is needed most in the bullpen.
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Update on Danica Patrick. While she is in the news for getting in a verbal tiff with Dan Wheldon, the real attention should be on an actual successful female athlete. I'm not talking about Justine Henin, who is set to win her 3rd straight French Open. I'm shallow. Who I am talking about honoring is her opponent, Ana Ivanovic. The Serbian Ivanovic dispatched of Maria Sharapova in the semis. If you haven't seen her, I recommend it, as she is the hottest quality female athlete I've seen since Katarina Witt. Yummy.
The White Sox record has them on pace for 74 wins, while their Pythagorean Record has them at 64. PECOTA tried to tell you, but you just wouldn't listen.
The sox offense and bullpen are playing way below pecota expectations. The white sox continue to defy pecota projections, even if their overall record might wind up close to expected.
"* 1. There is no star in the starting rotation. Mark Buehrle has a ton of mileage on his arm, and wasn't a guy who could afford to lose any stuff. Jose Contreras is old, and stunk in the second half. Jon Garland doesn't miss bats. Javier Vazquez is good, but his home run rates prevent him from being a star. Prognosis: reasonable.
* 2. The back end of the White Sox pitching staff is a mess. I'm pleased that the White Sox have decided to go with Danks, and I'm optimistic about what they're going to get out of him. Injury risk is a problem here-I don't think that Gavin Floyd has any business in a major league uniform, and I don't know what to expect out of Charlie Haeger. But if the top four stay healthy and Danks holds down his spot, I expect passable results. Similarly, the back of the bullpen should be better than projected given Don Cooper's history. Prognosis: possibly unreasonable.
* 3. The White Sox are going to lose a ton of value from the LF and CF positions. Scott Podsednik's weaknesses are well-established, and leave the White Sox in a 3-4 win hole at his position. I suppose that Darin Erstad could be healthy again, but what are the White Sox expecting-a return to his 2005 numbers? He hit a forgettable .273/.325/.371 that season. The best-case scenario is that Erstad is about average; the worst-case scenario is that he's the worst regular in the league. Prognosis: reasonable.
* 4. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye will decline. Dye is a fine athlete, but career seasons at 32 are usually just that. Paul Konerko has stayed remarkably healthy, but he's an old player's skills guy with bad knees. We've already discussed Thome. Prognosis: reasonable.
* 5. The White Sox will stick with their current roster. This is an implicit assumption of all the depth chart-based projections, since we don't try and account for potential trades. Nevertheless, Williams is an active trader, and the White Sox should have a bit of payroll left to spend. If they hang in the race through July, I expect some reshuffling. Prognosis: probably unreasonable.
I'm comfortable giving the White Sox +5 wins, for a 77-85 record. I'm not comfortable with more than that"
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6023
With the exception of Marte, I don't think any of those guys qualifies as being consistently good. Pollitte was two seasons removed from giving shelled in Toronto. Same goes for Vizcaino in Milwaukee. Hermanson was consistently mediocre to bad. Only Marte had a consistent track record of success prior to 2005.
Todd Jones, with the exception of last year's aberration, has had walk rates above the league average for a number of years, including the current one. Good relievers are good relievers...period. The key is that most relievers are so fungible overall, another sabermetric tenet. Thus, so few are good over a period of 3 or 4 years...
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