Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
scott@scottlongonline.com
During one of the fantasy drafts I was involved in, I mentioned to the other team owners that I've never understood why so many people who pledge allegiance to sabermetrics still play in the typical 5x5 league? One of the other owner's mentioned that this sounds like a topic for Please Explain. So here we are.
If you not familiar about what a 5x5 league consists of here you go.
Offensive categories: runs, homeruns, ribbies, batting average, stolen bases.
Defensive categories: wins, saves, strikeouts, era, whip
Now, I'm not blaming Daniel Okrent and the guys who developed rotisserie baseball back in 1980, as these were the stats that ruled the game at the time. It's just as many of these numbers have been exposed as being empty categories over the past couple decades that I wonder why so many baseball fans continue to play in these leagues. What is really mystifying to me is when there are fantasy baseball challenges conducted between writers who cover the game, they always seem to be 5x5 leagues.
I have always joined "sabr-type" scoring leagues, which generally use OBP, SLG, Runs, RBI's for offense, with Wins, Saves, ERA, WHIP for pitching categories. While I know there is no perfect stat to judge players (yes, even SWOBODA), being concerned about batting average and stolen bases just seems hypocrital. How can sabermetrical experts be involved in public leagues where these categories count for so much? It's like Al Gore owning stock in Haliburton. There seems to be a major conflict of interest here, as you are rooting for something that you find as a negative to your most central beliefs.
Now, I know some would knock the merits of runs batted in, wins, and saves, but if you just had an OPS category, it wouldn't make for a very interesting game. While a "sabr-type" league has flaws in its categories, at least it doesn't give a player like Juan Pierre too much credibility like 5x5 does.
If you follow baseball from a sabermetrical viewpoint, Please Explain why 5x5 fantasy baseball has merit.
Saves and steals might not be as good stats in determing player value but as a 5x5 player I had to learn about things like 'Will Chris Duffy be the starting CF for the Pirates?' and 'Who will close for the Devil Rays?'. I know Al Reyes isn't Scott Kazmir and Chris Duffy isn't Jason Bay but so what? I don't know how it's any more or less fun to search or an unknown player who steals bases as one that hits for a good SLG%.
Joel Zumaya was a better reliever than Todd Jones last year even though Jones had 37 saves and Zumaya had one. Zumaya had 6 wins in 83 IP with great Ks, ERA, and WHIP. Jones was good in one category and OK in all the others. It doesn't matter what the 5 sets of stats are in pitching or hitting - you still have to know how all the interplay the different stats.
The traditional 5x5 stats are also the default setting for most free leagues. Inertia rules.
--David
I'm commissioning a league this year with people I've played with for close to ten years. It's not the group's primary league, so I opted to replace AVG with OBP and SLG and added IP on a whim - nothing too drastic, just a little departure from the norm. Despite doing everything I could to publicize the changes, half the league was caught by surprise. During the draft, it became clear that a number of players didn't even know what SLG was (not idiots, just not sabermeticians). A number complained that the changes over-emphasized power hitters (oblivious to the fact that 5x5 leagues do as well). Of the thirteen other players, only one seemed happy with the scoring "changes". Of the four leagues I'm in this year, I suspect the Juice Blog league is the only one that wouldn't have a similar reaction.
Anyway, I'd consider myself more of a sabermetrics type than an old-guard type, and I still enjoy 5x5 for a few reasons. For one, as StolenMonkey86 noted, it's fantasy. I'd argue that fantasy keeps things interesting because small actions can have major results. A guy goes 25/50 in his last dozen or so games, and suddenly a .270 league-average hitter has finished the season batting .300.
Furthermore, they're the sort of stats that, for the most part, are more visceral. A guy taking a walk, while I can intellectually appreciate, doesn't really 'fire up the blood' so to speak. However, a guy on my 5x5 roto team steals a base, beats out a throw to home to score on a single, and the inning ends on the next batter, that's much more immediate gratification.
Lastly, it allows me to play with non-sabermetric friends, which is a major component. I enjoy fantasy leagues. And I enjoy playing in leagues with my friends. But unless you work with a bunch of other SABR fellows, it's rather difficult to get a discussion of VORP going. So I play in 5x5 roto leagues, and hope that I can stomach my dislike of Juan Pierre.
Yes, that's the one that's got to go.
As for the other major "Juan Pierre" number: Though stolen bases are overvalued way beyond their corresponding worth in the actual game, I'm still in favor of playing in leagues that have them, simply because they make the game of fantasy baseball more challenging. You have to work harder to get a balance, rather than simply scrambling to stockpile a bunch of Travis Hafner OPS hosses.
We go 6x6, adding OPS to the bats, and K:BB to the arms.
Pitching: K/9, BB/9, FIP, WPA, and pLi (to keep relievers valuable)
Batting: OBP, ISO, OPS Wins (or a run formula derived from wOBA), WPA, and maybe Clutchiness to make it more unpredictable.
Useful glossary here: http://tinyurl.com/3cm2ve
I think that is a pretty SABR way around the whole thing. Especially considering that once you do a 5X5 or anything like that you are already sacrificing quite a bit of realism. There is nothing wrong with that, Chuck Klosterman for example wrote about how attempts to make fantasy sports more real resulted in them being less fun. Under that premise I can appreciate why people play in standard 5X5 leagues.
It occurs to me that I could have used "put" or "calculated" instead of "run" for the third time in the sentence. I guess it was just on the brain.
Hits, OBP, SLG, HR, SB
QS, K, WHIP, ERA, Saves
Hits is in there to incentivize healthy lineups and top-of-the-order types. Quality Starts was a big leap for people but they've come to love it. Your guy exits in the 7th with a 2-1 deficit and you're golden. Plus you can draft KC and DC guys on equal plane with CM Wang and company.
One quirk I found after a year of tracking QS. Managers will leave borderline (90-100 pitch) guys in through 5 to get a Win but have a quick hook in the middle of the 6th. Bad for QS!! You start to see how many dopes manage accd to the Win stat.
Haven't figured out how to kill off Saves yet. WXRL anyone?
Most of these new stat categories you're talking about are not tracked or real to many people. Baseball is a complicated stat game but at it's core it's simply. Hitters hit and pitchers pitch. Simplicity is fun.
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