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Meet the SWOBODA, Baseball's Newest Prediction Tool
2007-03-29 23:21
by Scott Long

The Juice Blog is excited to unveil the newest baseball prediction tool called the SWOBODA. This revolutionary new system is named after below-average New York Mets' outfielder, Ron Swoboda, who parlayed one great catch off of the bat of Brooks Robinson during the '69 Series, into becoming a minor celebrity. the SWOBODA is an acronym which stands for Statistically Worthless Official Baseball Operationally Designed Algorithm. While the acronym does seem a bit silly, it doesn't seem much worse than Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA).

Breaking down the SWOBODA into 3 parts I hope will make it easier to understand.

  1. Statistically Worthless. This is the most important part, as my system doesn't even use a calculator. Instead it's based on reading a bunch of MLB previews and then trying to put together a load of bullshit that doesn't make me look like a complete idiot.
  2. Official Baseball. Any time you hear/read these 2 words together, you know you've got something great. For example, DirecTV is the Official Baseball carrier of MLB Extra Innings. Yeah!
  3. Operationally Designed Algorithm. Truthfully, I couldn't tell you if these 3 words make any sense together, but I do know they look like the kind of boring crap that existed in my course textbook that I rarely looked at in my College Statistics class. I basically relied on cheating off of test papers from fellow students who had wacky names like Tango Tiger.

By the way, I had heard of the word, but had no idea what algorithms were until I looked it up in the Dictionary before I wrote this piece. Not proud to say this, but I've already forgotten what it means. My brain is filled with much more important stuff like Phylicia Rashad (Mrs. Cosby) was once married to the cop from the Village People, Victor Willis, but their union desolved because of the Macho Man's cocaine abuse. If you wanted clever insights on algorithms, you wouldn't be here in the first place.

A few unique elements that make Swoboda so special are...

  • As mentioned above, I don't even remember what an algorithm is. Instead, the SWOBODA uses biorythms to predict the future. Here's a tip. Jake Peavy is in a much better whale cycle this year, than in 2006.
  • Instead of using Clay Davenport's defensive translations, I have used Clay Aiken's horoscope. What does this accomplish? It hopefully will bring Claynation maniacs back to the site, because I miss them.
  • A former employee at BALCO labs has helped me understand who might be likely to have an "unexpected" break-out year.
  • In a unique feature that none of the other baseball prediction tools possess, the SWOBODA gives WIN shares to any player or manager who instead of chasing amateurs, hires major league talent to help "relieve tension and everyday stress."
  • Unlike PECOTA, the SWOBODA is designed towards coming up with positive evaluations on the Chicago White Sox. Despite this programmed slant, it still has a hard time figuring out what Ozzie Guillen is saying.

While the SWOBODA is completely untested for baseball, I have used it for American Idol voting and it has spit out that Sanjaye! will be not be sent home, so that's good enough for me. (the SWOBODA predicts Sanjaye! will make it for 3 more weeks.) Considering that it's next to impossible to pick the National League this year, I have let my trusty system make the predictions.


  1. Atlanta Braves
  2. New York Mets
  3. Philadelphia Phillies
  4. Florida Marlins
  5. Washington Nationals


  1. Houston Astros
  2. St. Louis Cardinals
  3. Chicago Cubs
  4. Milwaukee Brewers
  5. Pittsburgh Pirates
  6. Cincinnati Reds


  1. San Diego Padres
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks
  4. Colorado Rockies
  5. San Francisco Giants

the SWOBODA comes up with only one team (the Braves) reaching 90 wins. In the Central, there will be only a space of 8 games between first and fifth place. Same goes for the West. The Dodgers sneak by the Mets, Phillies, and Cards for the Wild Card. I like the Padres to make it to the World Series, as manager Bud Black will shape the best pitching staff in the NL.

I will post more features from the SWOBODA, when I have more time to make them up.


2007-03-30 07:52:43
1.   Josh Wilker
Finally, a baseball prediction tool that doesn't give me the sinking feeling that I missed the first seven weeks of class!
2007-03-30 13:47:05
2.   Voxter
The methodology of SWOBODA sounds very similar to that of my own projection tools, BOMPs (*B*atter *O*verall *M*etric *P*rojections) and POMPs (*P*itcher *O*verall *M*etric *P*rojections). The signature of BOMPs and POMPs is taking radical positions on specific players. For instance, here's what BOMPs thinks of Alex Gordon:

.341 / .498 / .780 in 162 games played.

Meanwhile, this is what BOMPs projected for Adrian Beltre in 2006:

.131 / .142 / .211

Here's POMPs's projection for Carl Pavano, 2007:

43 IP, 14.56 ERA, and an assortment of hangnails, plantar warts, and toothaches.

And Daisuke Matsuzaka, per POMPs:


2007-03-30 21:32:03
3.   joejoejoe
SWOBODA has Milwaukee in the NL which is more than I can say for myself half the time.
2007-04-01 19:12:06
4.   SoSG Orel
You like Lou Brock
I, Manny Mota
Nissan, Toyota
Let's call the whole thing off
2007-04-01 19:21:45
5.   Scott Long
I am loving that tune, Orel. For April, your catchy lyrics will be the official song of the Juice Blog. Congrats!
2007-04-02 06:54:58
6.   Smed

NL East - Phils, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nats
NL Central - Brewers, Cards, Cubs, Astros, Reds, Pirates
NL West - D-backs, Padres, Rockies, Dodgers, Giants.

Mets in WC.

Phils to WS.

2007-04-02 09:55:18
7.   SoSG Orel
Whoo-hoo! In your face, "Take Me Out to the Ballgame"!

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