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College Bowl Game Selections
2006-12-26 12:39
by Scott Long

It's finally time for me to weigh in on the College Bowl season. This season my college choices have been a shiny, happy 35-25, with a plus 22 number on the star basis. They are listed in order of when they are played. They are 2-star selections, unless noted.

Florida St.(+4) UCLA
Okla St.(-2) Alabama
K-State(+7.5) Rutgers (3-star)
California(-3.5) Texas A$M

Hard to see Bowden having his first losing season while at Florida St. (**** The Griddle's Bob Timmermann shares with me that Bobby's first season in Tallahassee, the Sems had a losing record. ****)
Something you will notice here is that the 2006 SEC is overrated.
Another league that got way too much play is the Big East.
California is a better team than they showed much of the year.

Oregon St.(-3) Missouri
Minnesota(+6.5) Texas Tech (3-star)
Purdue(PK) Maryland
Boston College(-6) Navy

The Pac-10 I think will have the best overall record in the bowl games.
Minnesota will run the ball successfully, winning the time of possession game.
The ACC sucked this year, while Purdue played a better level of competition.
Well coached BC will not look past Midshipmen.

Iowa(+9) Texas
Penn St.(+4) Tennessee
Auburn(1.5) Nebraska (3-star)
Wisconsin(+2) Arkansas (3-star)

While the game looks to be a mismatch, the Big 10 usually wins the Alamo Bowl.
As you can tell from my picks, I'm leaning heavily towards Big 10 teams to cover.
Talent and coaching levels don't look good for the Huskers
The Badgers are the most underrated team in the country. They will smashmouth the Razorbacks.

USC(-1) Michigan
Oklahoma(-7) Boise St. (3-star)
Wake Forest(+10) Louisville (4-star Bowl Game of the Year)
LSU(-9) Notre Dame

Best match-up of the bowl games. Don't feel strongly about the Trojans, but the combination of it being a virtual home game, plus Carroll being a far superior coach to Carr has me leaning USC's way.
Boise just hasn't seen this type of talent. The Sooners were screwed out of the Top 5, with the Ducks debacle in Eugene.
Louisville is explosive, but the Demon Deacons will play a deliberate pace which will keep the game close.
Like many other recent Fighting Irish teams, they are playing a superior bowl opponent who will be inspired to kick them all over the field.

Ohio St.(-7) Florida

I think there are 5 or 6 better teams than Florida, but concerned that the Buckeyes already feel like they have played their national championship game versus Michigan. Not playing a game since Nov. 18, while the Gators played as recently as Dec. 2. Mild play on the Buckeyes.

2006-12-26 14:02:27
1.   Penarol1916
I think that your biggest mistake here is Texas Tech-Minnesota. Minnesota has just an atrocious pass defense, they can control the ball all they want because it will only take that bizarre offense of Texas Tech 10-minutes to score 50-points on the Gophers' defense.
While I disagree with a few others (I think Cal is worse than they showed most of the year and I could never pick Wisconsin since every time I do, they lose), I can't fault you for any of them, but to make Minnesota a 3-star pick, I just don't see it.
2006-12-26 14:59:43
2.   Scott Long
Good reasoning. My thoughts are that it will be high-scoring, as both teams can't stop each other's strength.

Ultimately, I will point out that the Gophers losses were to quality teams all playing in a bowl. Cal, Purdue, Michigan, Penn St. (by 1), Wisconsin, and Ohio St.

The Red Raiders lost by 24 to Colorado. The 2-10 Buffaloes. Youch. I will take the points.

2006-12-26 15:40:21
3.   Bob Timmermann
Even Terry Bowden on Yahoo is picking against his old man.
2006-12-26 15:42:19
4.   Bob Timmermann
Also, if you think the Pac-10 is going to have the best record among conferences in the bowls, that will be tough if UCLA loses because the Pac-10 wouldn't be better than 3-3. In fact, the Pac-10 can't be better than 4-2 and the MWC is already in the clubhouse at 3-1.
2006-12-26 16:56:02
5.   Vishal
yeah, but who cares about the MWC?
2006-12-26 18:52:02
6.   Bob Timmermann
I have learned not to speak ill of the MWC.
2006-12-26 19:00:59
7.   Scott Long
Should have been more specific in saying best conference record for the games I was discussing in the post. Thanks West Coast editors for staying on me. It will only make me better.

Bob and Vishal can now add to their resumes:
Scott Long's Life Coaches

2006-12-26 19:53:54
8.   Bob Timmermann
Mountain West fans who visit Baseball Toaster are an angry bunch! I've incurred their wrath before!
2006-12-27 21:55:43
9.   Scott Long
Let it be said. "What the Hell does Terry Bowden know, anyway?"
2006-12-28 17:21:47
10.   Linkmeister
It ain't only Mountain West fans. UH over ASU 41-24 (WAC over Pac-10) in the Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl.

I see you hedged by restating your conference picks to cover only the ones mentioned in the post, but still.

2006-12-28 19:48:47
11.   Scott Long
Link- Don't feel I'm hedging anything. I put all my picks out here for everyone to see and pick apart. When I wrote the statement, it was me focused on the games I was choosing. Since I realize that this wasn't clear, I restated it specifically.

I'm by no means an apologist for the PAC-10, as I usually beat up on it for being soft in both football and basketball. This year it is different for both sports. Oh and let me add that if Cal holds on here, I will be 2-0 so far on my picks, which have included 2 PAC-10 teams. Cal covers and my overall college season record is 37-25. Ask your favorite tout sheet if they wouldn't love to have that kind of record.

2006-12-29 20:07:27
12.   Scott Long
Hey some vindication is in order for my Gophers choice.

The Oregon State 2 point conversion was exciting, but truly f-ed up the line, as people with dough on the Beavers must have been thinking they had a chance at a miracle overtime cover. Well, they didn't deserve to win the game, anyway, as Mizzou dominated the game and got the bad end of every close call in the game.

2006-12-29 20:46:10
13.   Scott Long
I'm live blogging with myself. Must be the only place on the net where anyone is discussing the Insight Bowl. Sad. Almost as sad it the Gophers are up 35-7 at halftime, but have done nothing in the second half and Tech just kicked a 52 yard field goal to send it to overtime.
2006-12-29 21:08:36
14.   Scott Long
As I said before, vindication for my Gophers choice. Nothing to worry about. Had it all the way.

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