Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
scott@scottlongonline.com
I'm reading Baseball Between The Numbers again, really trying to grasp it. I'm stuck right now on Keith Woolner's chapter about defense and have a little thought exercise -
Place these players into the most optimal defensive lineup. The only rule is that they cannot be placed in the position which they are listed.
C - Jason Varitek
1B - Derrek Lee
2B - Orlando Hudson
SS - Omar Vizquel
3B - Eric Chavez
LF - Jason Bay
CF - Andruw Jones
RF - Ichiro Suzuki
SP - Greg Maddux
Explain as much as you wish.
Here's what I have:
C - Bay
1B - Maddux
2B - Chavez
SS - Hudson
3B - Vizquel
LF - Lee
CF - Ichiro
RF - Andruw
P - Varitek
I don't know if Bay can play catcher. But it seems reasonable to toss a big body there instead of... say... Maddux. Bay is probably the worst of the other defenders.
I put Varitek at the position that requires the least movement. He doesn't have to actually pitch, right?
Maddux takes 1B. He may even have decent range there. You could toss Varitek at 1B, but then I'm not sure where to put Maddux.
Andruw and Ichiro switch. Chavez, Hudson and Vizquel do a tango round the left side of the infield.
1B - Chavez
2B - Maddux
SS - Hudson
3B - Varitek
LF - Lee
CF - Bay
RF - Andruw
P - Ichiro
I try a shorter player at catcher; tall catchers don't seem to be prevalent. Maddux should be able to handle 2B. Ichiro to pitch? The guy can do anything. The rest just fall into place.
1B - Maddux
2B - Chavez
3B - Vizquel
SS - Hudson
LF - Lee
CF - Bay
RF - Varitek
P - Pitchiro!
Jones ended up at catcher mostly because he was what was left over after I hid Maddux & Varitek. Pitchiro! is at pitcher because it's funny and because he has a good arm. I might switch Hudson & Chavez, depending on what I thought of Hudson's arm.
1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C
I would imagine a superior fielding P is at least as good as a 3B based on reaction time and similar to 2B in the ability to make plays in motion in any direction. I'm not assuming pitchers have much range so I'm placing P between 3B and CF on the Defensive Spectrum.
Revised Spectrum (based on my bullsh%t)
1B - LF - RF - 3B - P - CF - 2B - SS - C
If rightward shifts on the defensive spectrum rarely work you should be penalized for moving doing so (RF to C, 2B to SS). So let...
One position shift left = +1
One position shift right = -1.5 (not equal because it's harder to shift right)
C - Omar Vizquel -1.5
1B - Jason Bay +1
2B - Greg Maddux -3
SS - Orlando Hudson -1.5
3B - Jason Varitek +5
LF - Derrek Lee -1.5
CF - Ichiro Suzuki -4.5
RF - Andruw Jones +3
P -- Eric Chavez -1.5
Net defensive loss = -5.5
I didn't make this a pure math equation as I'm never going to play Varitek at SS or consider it an upgrade to put Maddux in CF over Ichiro. But it was fun playing around :)
1B - Maddux
2B - Ichiro
SS - E. Chavez
3B - A. Jones
LF - D. Lee
CF - O. Hudson
RF - J. Bay
SP J. Varitek
Sometimes followed the conventional organizational methodology on moving prospects, and in the case of Chavez inverted it back to his original spot, a position he's actually played at the majors on rare occasions. Ichiro gets moved to second because the pivot takes a certain athleticism and body type. Varitek becomes the pitcher following said conventional wisdom, it's been done successfully in the past although usually to RP. Catchers throw hard and accurate with the right mental makeup, Vizquel goes behind the plate for the same reason.
1b - G.Maddux
2b - O.Vizquel
3b - J.Varitek
ss - O.Hudson
lf - A.Jones
cf - I.Suzuki
rf - J.Bay
p - D.Lee
C & SS are the most difficult positions, but they are totally different skill sets. I say 3b has more in common w/ c than ss - quick reactions, strong arm and usually a bigger frame. I say defensively, P is easier than 3b; both require good reaction time but the pitcher is closer to home so more chances go to third (& prob. first as well).
In reality of course, the pitcher spot must be filled first. P >> Def on the Hit/Pitch/Catch spectrum, which supercedes the Defensive Spectrum.
C - Chavez
1B - Varitek
2B - Maddux
3B - Vizquel
SS - Hudson
LF - Lee
CF - Bay
RF - Jones
P - Suzuki
Varitek would simply be following in the hallowed paths trod by Piazza and Lopez, among countless others. Maddux has to go somewhere, and since he's not a power pitcher, but is a Gold Glover, I figure second base has the right combination of throwing distance and required defensive acumen for him. Hudson and Vizquel slide one spot over, and Chavez brings his 3rd-baseman's reflexes behind the plate.
Ichiro becomes the pitcher, because someone has to, and he used to be noted for his arm. Jones takes over in right, and Bay replaces Jones in centre, a position he's played before. Lee gets left field, because he has the speed to chase any balls he can't catch, and if Shannon Stewart's arm is good enough for left field, then by gum so is Derrek Lee's
Ichiro may be the best choice to get batters out but that doesn't mean tranferring his OF skills to P is the most optimal defensive alignment. Rich Gossage was an excellent pitcher but his motion dictated that he was a poor defensive player, if only because he was out of position on every play. Pitching and defense are not the same thing.
C: Bay
1B: Maddux
2B: Vizquel
SS: Hudson
3B: Lee
LF: Chavez
CF: Ichiro
RF: Jones
P: Varitek
C - Greg Maddux
Put the slow kid with the big butt behind the plate
1B - Orlando Hudson
Put the kid that catches everything he can get a hand on at first
2B - Omar Vizquel
The kid that catches most everything but doesn't have the best arm goes at second
SS - Ichiro Suzuki
The really competitive kid that can throw really well goes at short
3B - Andruw Jones
The kid with the good arm that doesn't pay enough attention to play short, but is too good to play in the OF plays at third
LF - Eric Chavez
Left is where you put the kid that's going to not complain about it because at least it wasn't right
CF - Jason Bay
Center's where you put the fastest kid you have for that's not good enough for the infield
RF - Derrek Lee
The kid that was picking his nose when you were assigning positions goes out to right
SP - Jason Varitek
The kid that throws most accurately and who's bat you don't mind giving up once in a while gets to pitch
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005.html
The three best fielders in that list, easily, are Ichiro, Hudson, and Andruw. Your two best fielders should be in CF, SS.
So, Ichiro is the easy choice to be CF (that should be his natural position anyway). Hudson is the easy choice as SS (that's where he was in the minors, and where he should be now).
As I try to decide on Andruw being at 3B or RF, let's look at the rest of the guys:
Chavez, Lee, and Vizquel are next on the rung. Chavez'd look good anywhere (2B, RF) at the moment.
Lee'd look good anywhere as well. Keeping Lee in the IF seems to be the smart choice, so 2B or 3B for him.
Vizquel doesn't have the arm for 3B, so 2B or LF.
Bay has good speed and a poor arm. 1B seems ideal.
That makes our decision on Vizquel as 2B. And put Lee at 3B, with Chavez in LF.
Varitek has good hands and instincts. I'd be happy with him at 3B, but P is ok here.
Put the 40-yr old as C.
So:
P Varitek
C Maddux
1B Bay
2B Vizquel
SS Hudson
3B Lee
LF Chavez
CF Ichiro
RF Andruw
Essentially, swap C/P, 1B/3B/LF, 2B/SS, CF/RF.
Good idea Will.
For Catcher, its semi-well known that both tall players and old players dont do well (So no Maddux), but I still gotta go with Vizquel, as Hudson would be my first pick but he gots to play short.
So:
C - Vizquel
P- Bay
3B - Varitek
SS - Hudson
2B - Maddux (If my 43 year old dad can do it in softball, he can do it here).
1B - Chavez (gotta have some scoops to deal with long throws from weak armed infielders)
RF - Lee
CF - Ichiro!
LF - Jones
I'm gonna have to go back and reread that chapter to see how my thinking fits in with Woolners Theories...
This would change if I could find evidence of one of the other guys with pitching experience or a closet knuckler a la Wade Boggs
1B Greg Maddux
2B Omar Vizquel
SS Orlando Hudson
3B Derrek Lee
LF Eric Chavez
CF Ichiro Suzuki
RF Andruw Jones
P Jason Varitek
Bay seems the most natural choice for catcher, and I agree with Tangotiger's reasoning at 2B, SS, and C. I thought about putting Chavez at first, flipping the corner players, but decided to take advantage of his range in the outfield, leaving Maddux to play first.
C - Lee (There are some recent examples of catchers going to first like Piazza, Barton, Mike Jacobs, etc., so maybe they are closer than we think)
P - Varitek (Range is least important here)
3B - Vizquel
SS - Hudson
2B - Chavez
1B - Maddux
CF - Ichiro
LF - Jones
RF - Bay
So I would suggest rotating the OF, rotating the "skill" IF positions, and rotating C/P/1B if we focus on JUST fielding, and not pitching. Lee especially would be interesting to try at Catcher, since he is well known to be very athletic.
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I like the Jones/Bay setup in #19. And simply swapping Lee/Chavez would have been good too. And the C/P.
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Btw, Will, Keith used Clay's fielding stats to do the adjustment. That was not a good choice. A few years ago, I did what Keith did, but using UZR. This is what I came up with for adjustments:
http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR9903TT.html
The gap between CF and the corner positions is enormous, far more than Keith is showing. And CF is a premier fielding position, again, far more than Keith is showing.
As for catchers:
http://www.tangotiger.net/catchers.html
the running game has a big impact. I'm sure the "pitcher handling" has some impact as well. It's not as unimportant as the Matheny chapter in BBTN shows is my guess, though I've never done the work on it. Yet anyway.
Tom
1B- Varitek only place you can put him
2B- Vizquel all 3 non 1B infielders are good defenders, you can move them around any way you want
SS- Chavez
3B- Hudson
LF- Jones simple rotation, Jones and Ichiro move one spot over
CF- Ichiro
RF- Maddux can hide him there, not too tough on his aging body
SP- Lee, youngish, athletic, had a solid, fundamental swing, so maybe he could do the same with a pitching motion
For catcher, I didnt necessarily think to myself "I wonder if so and so has catching experience." I felt like that was defeating the principal of the idea. I figured that no matter who I am putting at catcher, I am at a disadvantage. Therefore, I went with the "easiest" position to play, 1B, and put him at C. So Derrek Lee is my catcher.
After that I just worked my way down the spectrum moving the better player one spot lower. My catcher went to second base, second base to shortstop and so on. At the end, I ended up with Ichiro and Maddux. At that point, I move Maddux to left field in the "easiest" spot on the spectrum, and Ichiro to pitcher for lack of another spot available. My lineup looks like so:
C: Derrek Lee
1B: Jason Bay
2B: Jason Varitek
SS: Orlando Hudson
3B: Omar Vizquel
LF: Greg Maddux
CF: Eric Chavez
RF: Andruw Jones
P: Ichiro
And people keep putting Maddux at C. Stepping away from "theories" for a sec, does anyone realistically believe Maddux could handle the rigor of a single game behind the dish? I mean, lets not let the numbers blur reality. Lee, Chavez, Vizquel? Sure, its plausable. Maddux behind the dish? I don't know about that. The only positions I could see Maddux being able to handle are 2B (an admitted stretch) and 1B. Maybe a more athletic or younger pitcher could play RF, but thats aobut it.
Ask Sean Forman if he can post his blog entry from a few years ago. It was fascinating.
If you chose a set of players more representative of the average player at their position to run this exercise with, you'd get a different set of positional switches.
I don't think you'd want to move a generic third baseman to left field, but Eric Chavez has good speed and fly ball judgment, so that's why I moved him there. Greg Maddux may be old, but he has quick, soft hands (hence all those gold gloves), so I put him at first base, where I think he'd be pretty good at the scoop. You wouldn't want to put a lot of corner outfielders in center, but Ichiro would be just fine there.
Each player has different strengths and weaknesses, which makes them more or less suited to a different position. Perhaps it's not a spectrum or a pyramid, but a matrix of skills, which at each position receives a different weight.
So should Jeter move to center field? Soriano to left field? Should Biggio be a catcher, a second baseman, or an outfielder? What does the (theoretical) skills matrix say?
Me: Ken, I agree, as this sounds exactly like what I'm doing -- http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_OAK.html
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Will, can you tell us why you came up with the list, and why/how the inclusion of the pitcher?
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/sim2005_116539.html
His tops skills matrix comps are RF.
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Soriano's list is 2B, but, they are all bad fielders, and, his comp list isn't even very similar. He's decidedly unique
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/sim2005_150093.html
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Here's Biggio:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/sim2005_110987.html
Again, not a good set of fielders, but CF/2B seems to be his spot.
For example, rather than a generic "speed" category, you'd differentiate between straight-ahead sprinter speed, which is more important for outfielders, and side-to-side quickness, which is more important for infielders.
However, having seen professional scout's notes on players, I can say that what the Fans give me is more accurate and has more breadth.
Are you considering the pitcher only as a fielder, or as a pitcher-fielder?
- if as a fielder, no issue;
- if as a pitcher-fielder, big issue. You can conceivably put any fielder at any position (certainly any GG winner). You certainly couldn't do that for a nonpitcher put in a pitcher spot
As you can see by some of the responses in this thread, some did consider the first case, and others the second case. From that standpoint, either more clarity, or simply discard the pitcher from consideration.
Tom
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