I'm notoriously bad at predictions, so I don't know why I'm once again doing it. I'm near the bottom of the list on Lee Sinins' public prediction contest and despite offers of significant amounts of money and cases of General Foods International Coffees, Lee won't expurgate me from that. I'm also in a contest run by Jim Baker and while I was in the lead for about half an hour in May, I'm now down near the bottom.

So, I need to be a bit more scientific with my playoff predictions. Last year, I think I had the Yankees and Cardinals ... sigh.

Here's how I'm looking at them:

Cubs vs. Braves
Wood vs Ortiz, Prior vs Hampton, Zambrano vs Maddux.

Ok, these look good for the Cubbies, but the Braves offense could negate the matchups in a hurry. For the Cubs to win, they'll need to be lots of 2-1 games rather than 8-6. Its a stark reversal for the normally slugging Cubbies and pitching rich Braves. I'm surprised with Hampton getting the 2 slot over Maddux, but Maddux IS notoriously iffy in the postseason. I'll take the Cubs in four.

Giants vs. Marlins
Schmidt vs Beckett, Ponson vs Penny, Williams vs Willis

This is guesswork on the Marlins, but both teams could go four-man in the post-season, adding in Reuter for the Gints and Redman for the Fish. With Ponson not being as good as expected (wouldn't they like Javier Vazquez instead?) and the Fish rotation looking pretty nasty, the Fish are a team no one really wants to face. Hard throwing, emotional, deceptive and a deep pen? That's not what you want to see. I'll never go against the idea that Barry Bonds won't again put this team on his back and will them to a ring, but this is the playoff series that I think could recall the Mariners-Yankees series of (i think) 95. Very close, with the Giants winning in five.

Yankees vs. Twins
Mussina vs Santana, Clemens vs Radke, Pettitte vs Lohse.
Robert Herzog dropped a great line about this series: "The Yankees are so far inside the Twins' heads that they pay rent on their skulls." Very true, but this isn't the same Twins team. Rattling off ten straight and pitching their best of the season, the Twins suddenly look dangerous. There's always a desire of the human mind to assign cause to things even when there's no evidence for it and with the Twins, two moves that really did nothing serious look to be pivotal. Those are the acquisition of Shannon Stewart and the return of Eric Milton. Unless a lot more goes on in the clubhouse than we know about, those moves have helped, but mostly it's just good pitching. There's a great take on this at the last Twins PTP over at Prospectus. With all the pressure on the Yankees, I think they'll squeak through and take this in five, but to me, it's all about Game One. If Santana can pitch them past the Yankees and evict the Pinstripes from their beans, the Twins will take it.

A's vs Red Sox
Hudson vs Martinez, Zito vs Lowe, Lilly vs, Wakefield
While Theo and Billy won't be on the field, there will be a great focus on what are two of the smartest GMs in the biz. What Theo has done in just one year is stunning, so Red Sox fans should just figure out a new identity now that lovable loser will be lost on you. Curse my ass, this team hits like no other, making this a classic "does good pitching stop good hitting" matchup like the Cubs-Braves. While the famous "my shit doesn't work in the postseason" line will come up ad nauseum, it's probably the bullpens that decide this series and neither is overwhelming. The most interesting thing to watch is Wakefield. Now I love knucklers, but Wakefield might be the Game Three starter, then go sit in the pen available for four and five! How cool is that and why aren't more teams developing knucklers of their own? This one's really a pick 'em and I'll stick with my early season call of the A's in the Series in the Moneyball Year, taking the Sox in four.

Sorry to the teams I just cursed. Some year, I'll do some Costanza backward picks or something.