I talk alot about a concept of cascades when it comes to injuries; one thing breaks and then in trying to compensate, other things break. Ken Griffey Jr is a great example of this. His hammy tears and then he gets all sorts of problems, maybe loses a step and has to dive, popping his shoulder out.

Cascades happen all over. I got the word for the concept from a book, Linked, about network architecture. We're seeing one now in Montreal. A team that's ready to move is facing a cascade that I think will lead them to the desert.

First, I've been loud about my support for an MLB team in Vegas. I love the town and think it will succeed there. But that support has nothing to do with why I think a team will end up there - good result for all the wrong reasons.

The Expos simply can't stay in Montreal for much longer. It's a big debate as to whether baseball can succeed there, but MLB has pissed in that well, salted the earth, and Bud's all but said as much when pranked by a DJ. With that as a given, there are several markets after the team with Vegas being a late contender that's actually been in stealth mode for most of the year.

Each other contender for the team has major warts - no owner in Portland, no stadium in NoVa, and Peter Angelos screwing up the best choice in DC. Vegas has money, corporate support, and - best of all - a Friend of Bud leading the group. I don't think this deal gets done for 2004. I just don't think there's enough time and Cashman Field at 9500 seats probably can't handle a major league team, while I dont see any other alternatives.

So with the Expos players rejecting a split-schedule, that means whoever takes over for Omar Minaya will need to shed payroll. Javier Vazquez becomes this year's Bartolo Colon, traded off for hopefully more than Omar got last year. Vlad Guerrero might resign - he doesn't like media, giving some the idea that he wouldn't like Vegas. Look, he might become more anonymous in Vegas than in Montreal. While I think they could get support on a Phoenix level there, the team isn't ever going to be the biggest story in town. Ben Affleck will drop cash in the Hard Rock or Celine Dion's husband will do something stupid and the Vegas 7-11's will get pushed to the back page. Fine with me and probably fine with Vlad. He'll sign as some show of MLB largesse, when he's in fact below market value and only at the $11.5m he's at this year. I guess everyone's happy except the true Expos fans.

It's another example of Bud cronyism. It's worked out okay in Boston, I guess, and you could make an argument that it's working in Florida, but that doesn't mean I have to give it my stamp of approval either. Bud's determined to have every tradition of baseball come from his administration. Wild Card? All-Star Game? New publicly-financed stadiums? Luxury tax? All him. All affecting baseball for years to come. Just ask George Will.

I'm no George Will - and thank god for that - so I can see the truth. Bud answers to money and if he thinks the money is in Vegas, there's no power on earth that will stop him.

Pete and Vegas as the big off-season stories? I don't like it one bit, but Bud doesn't ask me or any other fan. In fact, he doesn't give us one thought.