Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
scott@scottlongonline.com
I haven't made but one NFL choice over the past few weeks (Broncos over Pats), because I don't like to bet against home teams during the playoffs. This was a bizarre playoff year, where road teams did really well, which didn't suprise me much, except for the Colts losing. In case you missed it, I've had a really good season picking games in the NFL, hitting at 59% rate (33-23). On the college side I was 29-27, which makes you a loser when you add the juice. By the way, this is a different kind of juice than is usually discussed around here.
The Super Bowl seems like a trap game, as the Steelers should be more like a 7 or 8 point favorite, instead of going off at 3.5. The Seahawks have the top left-side offensive line in football, as Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson might be the two best at their respective positions in the NFL. I like Matt Hasselbeck, but the athletic ability of the Steelers linebackers cause a lot of confusion for quarterbacks. (Ask Peyton Manning) Besides the large advantage the Steelers have on defense, I think their wide receievers are a big step-up over what Seattle has.
With the overall talent advantage, plus a reasonable pointspread, why am I not more enthusiastic about Pittsburgh? I have seen Bill Cowher lose too many big games in playoff situations for that not to be a concern. Holmgren has one ring and I think he has a good feel for his team. The AFC is the better conference and it's hard to look past how dominant they've been in the Super Bowl over the past 10 years.
2 star Pittsburgh 24-16.
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I plan over the next couple of weeks to check back on how the major prognosticators did in their pre-season predictions for Major League Baseball, the NFL and College Football. In regards to college basketball, my picks have been all over the place.
The Good: Stating the Big 10 would get 7 teams in the Big Dance and putting Northern Iowa and Creighton in my Top 25. (Check the RPI- The Missouri Valley is a beast.)
The Bad: I had currently middle of the road MAC team Ohio, rated 19 in the land. I said the Pac-10 would be improved, with a number of quality teams. Ouch. What could be worse? Try making Stanford my sleeper Final 4 team. Once again, I have no feel for the Pac-10, as I must have lost every football game I chose from this conference in 2005.
If I was going to revise my Final 4, I would stick with my Connecticut, Michigan State, and Duke selections, but would move West Virginia up from my original spot of 7. I love to watch the Mountaineers play and they are really hard to match up with.
Finally, I've never been a fan of JJ Redick, but in Duke's loss to Georgetown, he put me in his corner. The guy has always been an unreal shooter, but he has added to this the ability to take his defender off the dribble, which has made him nearly impossible to defend. He's become a solid defender as well, making JJ the more diverse player between him and Adam Morrison. I still like UCONN to win it all, but Redick just might be great enough to will his team to a championship.
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A FEW RANDOM NOTES
• I've got to figure with all the acclaim that Brokeback Mountain is getting, the Cowboy from the Village People must really feel vindicated. During his acceptance speech, Ang Lee should recognize Randy Jones as a real trailblazer.
• You can have your SNL rap parodies, this is the funniest clip I've seen recently. Flexen Schnitzel or Gropen Frau! Smigel rules comedy again. Oh and watch out for the race of unstoppable cyber gays, with their metallic fanny packs!
• Will and I have similar fetishes towards new electronics, as we are fanatical about satellite radios, DVR, Sidekick2, and our MP3 players, but I'm not on board with him on the video IPOD. I just don't like watching anything that small, as I have a hard time enjoying video which appears on a screen any smaller than 35 inches. Maybe Will was right, though, as porn stars like Jenna Jamison are now available for IPOD, set to be downloaded on. I really don't know how teenage boys aren't having hand to gland combat 10 times a day, with all the porn accessible. I can remember just a minute of watching bikinis sashaying on the lido deck of the Love Boat would set-off the launch sequence on my pocket rocket.
• Did I really read that Ozzie Guillen has now become one of Will's favorite people in baseball. I bet Will has never made a bigger 180 on how he felt about a person. Hey, maybe there's still hope for me to begin to appreciate Clay Aiken. Nah.
Rarely have two super bowl teams ever faced a more disparate strength of schedule. This is almost like matching an undefeated mid major vs. a 9-2 heavyweight in a bowl game. Which is another fascinating element to me.
Redick is also a master at drawing fouls with feints and fakes and lean-ins. When you shoot 90+%, that's a huge talent.
'UCONN may be in trouble too?'
The Huskies already beat Gonzaga and Arizona on a neutral court and Syracuse and Louisville on the road. They are #1 in the nation and play in the strongest conference in the nation. Everyone should have so much trouble. Their front line is better than the Knicks, their PG led the Big East in assists and they go 9 deep. Who doesn't fear Bucknell but let's give UCONN a bit more credit.
I never saw G-Town coming, myself, which was just as far off.
I had G-town in my top 25, but didn't see them being this good. They look to be one of those teams which could make the Elite 8 or lose in the first round, just depending on how they shoot it.
I don't see Bucknell sneaking up on anyone in the NCAA tourney and since they will probably be around a 10 seed, I suspect they will be 1 and done.
Let me give major props to Bruce Pearl at Tennessee. I've met Coach Pearl and he's one of the most dynamic people I've had a discussion with. He should have had a job like this 5 years ago, but his "Deon Thomas" past, kept him away. Well deserved.
Oh and by the way, why are more teams not running Dr. Tom Davis' basketball principles. Unless you are at a major school where recruiting is easy, this pressing, bounce passing style is exciting and gives you a chance to win almost every night out. The only reason it was never more successful for Davis (national championships) is that he was never much of a recruiter. Ever since Pearl left Davis' side, he never was able to get the top-notch athletes. The Vols are the SEC's newest b-ball power. I'm sure Kentucky fans watch the Vols dreamily, just imagining if Pitino hadn't of left and they were running a similar style.
But Princeton-come-NC State is the current more-darling style for the less talented. Air Force has had great success with it.
The UConn non-conference SOS is heinous. You can't get ready for the NCAAs playing that bunch of schlubs. Beating Louisville and Arizona are nothing. What's wrong with them scheduling some teams from the Colonial, or deigning to venture out and playing someone tough on the road? The Big (L)east will get no respect from me until they shore up their scheduling in the non-conference.
12, 16, 23, 66, 118, 187, 253, 274, 285, 319, 325, 326
Note: 3 of the top 4 RPI teams they played were in Maui.
Sure, it was a big help that they were able to win the Maui Invite, but the rest of their OOC schedule is basically "LSU, Indy and the dregs of D-1." Most teams with NCAA aspirations have the decency to at least play a FEW more games against teams not at the very bottom of the league. Even with their Big East schedule, they still have a worse overall SOS than all the other teams fighting for top seeds. If they take a couple more conference losses, Poll rankings or no, they will end up on the 2 line on Selection Sunday
I'm an Illini fan.
Bruce Pearl may be a decent guy in person, but his connections to the NCAA brass was what got the Illini in trouble...see the following link:
http://underscorebleach.net/jotsheet/2005/03/bruce-pearl-illinois-iowa-recruiting-scandal.
Personally, I hope Bruce Pearl never wins a game again.
End Bitter rant.
They will go into the NCAA tournament something like 27-5 at the worst (6-3 the rest of the way, 2-1 in the Big East tourney). If they are a two seed then so be it. I wouldn't want them in my bracket.
I think thatwas my favorite part of that Conan O'Brien clip.
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