Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
scott@scottlongonline.com
It's been a couple of weeks since I've written about the White Sox, but since most of the sports world ignores them, except for the Chicago media and a few White Sox bloggers, I thought it was time for another update. In case you missed it, the Sox sport a .690 winning percentage. Only the Cardinals have a percentage over .600 and they are still 4 games behind the White Sox pace. The second best record in the AL is currently held by the Orioles, who are 7.5 games behind the Sox. Presently, the AL wild card squad would be the Red Sox, who are 8 games behind. In the AL Central, the Twins trail by 9.5 games, with the Indians 11.5 and the Tigers 13 games off the pace. Not too shabby and oh by the way, the main focus of the media, the Yankees are 12.5 games worse.
So it's time for me to make my apology to the White Sox organization, as I predicted they would only finish a close second to the Twins and placed them as only the 8th best team in my MLB power rankings. I was a big fan of Kenny Williams' off-season moves, but lukewarm to his decision to bring in Jermaine Dye, who has a very solid OPS of .822. I underrated their starting pitching staff, rating it only the 3rd best in the AL, when it has been the best. I spoke to the great starting pitching depth, with Jon Garland being the best 5th starter around, when I should have mentioned he might be the best starter in the league.
Ok, so I've done it. I've made my mea culpa's. Now there is a LONG line of other's who need to get behind me in line. You know who you are, so let's get to it, because the days of expecting a major collapse are over as the White Sox are 27 GAMES over .500 and unless there is an injury juggernaut which hits them with such a force that it fills Under the Knife, the south side of Chicago is in the playoffs. Just thought you ought to be made aware. Now back to your New York Yankee coverage. 24-7, 365, unless it's a leap year.
They were average last year and I figured they'd be average this year ...
I still hate the GFWS, but at least now when they trash talk about how it's "their division" they'll have something to back it up. (Although if memory serves the score is still 3-1 even after this season.)
Here's to the Twins and GFWS in the ALCS...!
As a cub fan I must give my due to the sox. I didn't bash the moves in the offseason, but I did chuckle a little at the players brought in. (Jermaine Dye?) I like there style of play and the no quit attitude that they seem to possess. I will root for them to win from here on out. (except this weekend of course)
Side note- Scott, Hope to be at the show tomorrow.
;-)
Damn you Hooked on Foniks!!!
Garland BABIP by year (~200 IP unless noted otherwise:
2000: .314 (69.7 IP)
2001: .292 (117 IP)
2002: .278
2003: .273
2004: .277
2005: .259
(ML average is .309, or at least it was bet 96 and 2004)
I don't know about anyone else, but I find it pretty darn interesting that Garland has been able to maintain a consistant BABIP (and above average) rate over his full seasons, poking another little exception into the McCracken theory, potentially (unless you think it's just luck, but it doesn't appear to be).
Garland has been improved this year because of a decreased HR rate (not by a ton, but notable compared to last year) and a hugely decrease walk rate (he's on pace for about half of his career average). If you take it as a strong possibility that Garland an example of why the McCracken theory isn't 100% sound (but probably true as a generality), then there's no reason to think that he'll let up, even with the low K rate.
I think it's misspelled so often now, that both rarefied and rarified are correct now.
I still think they're the fourth-best team in their division - and I'd bet that they are below .500 the rest of the way (which should still take them into the playoffs, yeah).
They might not finish fourth, but they ain't that good - though they've played light years better than I thought they'd be.
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