Peter Gammons may be my writing hero, but Peter King is just behind him. Despite the fact that I'm at best a passing football fan - my interest renewed by my friends at Football Outsiders recently - I've always read King. I feel like I know his daughter, he's as big a coffee geek as I am, and he drops insider knowledge like few else. So, in honor ...

Ten Things I Think I Thought:

1. Houston would collapse. Yep, got this one right. I had no idea how complete it would be. I thought that Biggio would be weak in the OF, that Bagwell would trend down, and that Berkman would establish himself in spite of the knee. Instead, everything's gone wrong that could and even Roger Clemens can't get wins. It's hard for a franchise to be loyal and rebuild, something the Astros will really have to do after this season. Their future is not what's on the field.

2. Eric Milton was a bad signing. Ballpark. Effects. Get to know them. My senior year of high school, we played in a park that was hillside, surrounded by trees except in extreme left, where the soccer fields abutted. There was one tree, planted for no apparent reason, that would bend in the breeze. I learned early that in or out, that tree read the wind and the ballpark well. I've never seen a tree like that at the GAP but you don't need a weatherman to know which way the ball goes when Milton's on the mound. Maybe the Reds could charge more for outfield seats on days Milton pitches.

3. Adam Dunn is the next Barry Bonds. Hmm, not so much. He's powerful and has a great eye, but he still watches the ball way too much. Dunn is the first player that makes walks seem like a negative. He's got the potential to have the power, but I'm not sure he'll ever be the danger Bonds is to not make outs ... at all.

4. The A's would be better than last year. No, way off. Chavez has been horrible enough to come up in trade rumors, the pitching has been miserable and injured, and no one has stepped up. Everything I thought would break right has broken down. The A's are a team that looks lost, which may be the downside to a manager with no charisma.

5. Chris Young would break out. Inside info here, but even the level of his success sans a real breaking ball has surprised me. Young has a chance to become Randy Johnson level dominant if he can develop even a 55-60 curve. Orel Hershiser might be my first hire if I were given the reins of a team -- and I'm not sure what job I'd put him in.

6. Boston would repeat. Too early to tell. The Sox are replacing parts on the fly and the Schilling injury is certainly problematic. He's clearly paying for last season's miracle. The Sox have the money and talent, though the Renteria signing (with Ramirez and Pedroia close) seems worse than I thought. Keith Foulke is the wildcard.

7. David Eckstein was a horrible signing. Eckstein (14.9 VORP), Renteria (11.4) and Cabrera (4.5) played musical shortstop. Eckstein's the highest through the first third? I never expected this and want to know what Jocketty saw that the rest of us didn't. What did he expect Eckstein to do? How much is La Russa or the team batting behind him? Numbers don't tell us everything, but with Eckstein, it told us nothing.

8. Omar Minaya made all the right moves. Beltran. Pedro. Shifting the middle infield. Eh, two out of three ain't bad. The team's underperforming projections yet still in the thick of the race. If Piazza can get going and the rest of the team just take one uptick, plus a bit more pitching at the deadline, they're right there. I still think this is next year's team.

9. Dusty Baker would wear out his welcome in Chicago.Baker was brought in because of his reputation as a clubhouse leader, managing to bring a winning attitude to a "lovable loser" franchise. So much for that as he's alienated half the locker room and forced the marquis player out of town. Somehow, in the midst of a run of injuries and with a terrible offense outside of Lee and Ramirez, Dusty's held the team together. A couple mid-level acquisitions by Jim Hendry and we have 2003 all over again and Dusty's got another trophy on his mantle.

10. Milwaukee and Detroit would make big moves towards respectability. Done and done. Neither team is going to make the playoffs and neither should, but both have been turned around by new administrations on and off the field. Rebuilding sucks and a good plan should keep that from being necessary in cycles, but Melvin and Dombrowski have shown exactly how it should be done.