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Peter King Homage Notes
2005-05-31 14:55
by Will Carroll

Peter Gammons may be my writing hero, but Peter King is just behind him. Despite the fact that I'm at best a passing football fan - my interest renewed by my friends at Football Outsiders recently - I've always read King. I feel like I know his daughter, he's as big a coffee geek as I am, and he drops insider knowledge like few else. So, in honor ...

Ten Things I Think I Thought:

1. Houston would collapse. Yep, got this one right. I had no idea how complete it would be. I thought that Biggio would be weak in the OF, that Bagwell would trend down, and that Berkman would establish himself in spite of the knee. Instead, everything's gone wrong that could and even Roger Clemens can't get wins. It's hard for a franchise to be loyal and rebuild, something the Astros will really have to do after this season. Their future is not what's on the field.

2. Eric Milton was a bad signing. Ballpark. Effects. Get to know them. My senior year of high school, we played in a park that was hillside, surrounded by trees except in extreme left, where the soccer fields abutted. There was one tree, planted for no apparent reason, that would bend in the breeze. I learned early that in or out, that tree read the wind and the ballpark well. I've never seen a tree like that at the GAP but you don't need a weatherman to know which way the ball goes when Milton's on the mound. Maybe the Reds could charge more for outfield seats on days Milton pitches.

3. Adam Dunn is the next Barry Bonds. Hmm, not so much. He's powerful and has a great eye, but he still watches the ball way too much. Dunn is the first player that makes walks seem like a negative. He's got the potential to have the power, but I'm not sure he'll ever be the danger Bonds is to not make outs ... at all.

4. The A's would be better than last year. No, way off. Chavez has been horrible enough to come up in trade rumors, the pitching has been miserable and injured, and no one has stepped up. Everything I thought would break right has broken down. The A's are a team that looks lost, which may be the downside to a manager with no charisma.

5. Chris Young would break out. Inside info here, but even the level of his success sans a real breaking ball has surprised me. Young has a chance to become Randy Johnson level dominant if he can develop even a 55-60 curve. Orel Hershiser might be my first hire if I were given the reins of a team -- and I'm not sure what job I'd put him in.

6. Boston would repeat. Too early to tell. The Sox are replacing parts on the fly and the Schilling injury is certainly problematic. He's clearly paying for last season's miracle. The Sox have the money and talent, though the Renteria signing (with Ramirez and Pedroia close) seems worse than I thought. Keith Foulke is the wildcard.

7. David Eckstein was a horrible signing. Eckstein (14.9 VORP), Renteria (11.4) and Cabrera (4.5) played musical shortstop. Eckstein's the highest through the first third? I never expected this and want to know what Jocketty saw that the rest of us didn't. What did he expect Eckstein to do? How much is La Russa or the team batting behind him? Numbers don't tell us everything, but with Eckstein, it told us nothing.

8. Omar Minaya made all the right moves. Beltran. Pedro. Shifting the middle infield. Eh, two out of three ain't bad. The team's underperforming projections yet still in the thick of the race. If Piazza can get going and the rest of the team just take one uptick, plus a bit more pitching at the deadline, they're right there. I still think this is next year's team.

9. Dusty Baker would wear out his welcome in Chicago.Baker was brought in because of his reputation as a clubhouse leader, managing to bring a winning attitude to a "lovable loser" franchise. So much for that as he's alienated half the locker room and forced the marquis player out of town. Somehow, in the midst of a run of injuries and with a terrible offense outside of Lee and Ramirez, Dusty's held the team together. A couple mid-level acquisitions by Jim Hendry and we have 2003 all over again and Dusty's got another trophy on his mantle.

10. Milwaukee and Detroit would make big moves towards respectability. Done and done. Neither team is going to make the playoffs and neither should, but both have been turned around by new administrations on and off the field. Rebuilding sucks and a good plan should keep that from being necessary in cycles, but Melvin and Dombrowski have shown exactly how it should be done.

Comments
2005-06-01 07:09:56
1.   Smed
The A's are making a monkey of me as well - I thought they'd be right there, but they're almost Royal-like.

I think the jury is still out on Detroit - I do like what Milwaukee is doing, though.

I still think Dusty is a couple of slumps away from wearing out his welcome.

2005-06-01 11:35:15
3.   Todd S
Cubs fan here, so apply appropriate filters.

I watched last night's 2-1 Cubs win over the Dodgers, mainly because I don't get a chance to see the Cubs very often. Maybe this is a good thing since watching the game drove me crazy in parts. To try to stay on topic, I won't go into all of those things. However, I will say that I don't see a very big chance of a repeat of 2003. Most of the recent winning has been against either poor or cold teams, and the team has too many automatic outs, no bench, and too many injuries to play well enough for another 4 months.

Earlier this year I would have said to give Baker until the end of the season before making any decisions about him; however, I've seen enough this year. He can be fired at any time and it should only help the franchise. Once again last night he left Zambrano on the mound to throw 120+ pitches. "Open wood chipper...insert young arm."

2005-06-01 11:51:43
4.   onetimer
Zambrano was still throwing well--allowing one bloop hit through seven. The defense had cost him a shot at the win. He's shown the ability to carry high pitch counts without anything more than tendinitis or cramping. Plenty of reasons to let him pitch the eighth and give him a shot at the win, particularly with the scrub the Cubs are throwing out tonight (we're gonna need the bullpen).
2005-06-01 12:36:28
5.   gregsmokler
Will, I understand how you can say that Detroit has gained respectability again, but unless Mike Illitch held Dumbrowski at gunpoint and forced him to sign Mags, los tigres ain't EXACTLY the poster child for franchise rebuilding. Nevertheless, I am forced concede that it is a testament to the rest of Dumbrowski's team that they manage respectability despite that titanic albatross of a contract.

A couple other things:
A) your MVP projections for Eric Chavez are almost single-handedly losing me my fantasy league. (That, and the fact that i have kerry wood, mark prior, rich harden AND odalis perez as my pitching staff)

B) I am also a coffee fanatic and I'm curious what you brew at home, do you just get the good stuff at the market or do you live next door to a starbucks?

2005-06-01 19:17:01
6.   Todd S
"He's shown the ability to carry high pitch counts without anything more than tendinitis or cramping."

So far. Could he be the next Livan Hernandez, seemingly immune to abuse? Possibly. But why risk it for one more inning in a game on May 31st? Good grief...the Cubs have carried at least 12 pitchers most of the year. If you're not going to deploy them then why have them on the roster?

2005-06-01 21:56:19
7.   onetimer
This is the third time Carlos has gone 7+ innings giving up one hit. His record in those games? 1-0. He went 7 innings against the sox and the Cubs pissed it away. Carlos is the most passionate player in MLB; give him his chance for the W.

Moreover, look at tonight. Cubs were lucky to get 5 from the starter. We needed Carlos to be the horse last night, and he was. He also had 105 through 7. Why not hope for a quick inning?

2005-06-01 22:46:33
8.   Will Carroll
Peet's at home. HIGHLY recommend it. Had a chance to sit in a Peet's today, in Chicago for an hour and just sip.

"Editor" - Oops, bad source, and check your facts. How many times do you have to hear "Rose had a deal" before you accept it?

2005-06-02 10:04:19
9.   Todd S
onetimer,

I agree with your assessment of the short-term implications. However, I'm more worried about long-term. Zambrano just turned 24 and I'd like to see him pitching 7 innings a game for the Cubs for a long time. For most pitchers, each time you send him out for 120+ pitches the risk that the pitcher will hit the DL significantly increases. Could Zambrano be an exception? Absolutely. I just don't think it's worth the risk of finding out. And I'd certainly hate to see Wood, Prior, and Zambrano become the next Isringhausen, Wilson, and Pulsipher.

Finally, the Cubs still have a couple of relievers that were not used last night, nor the night before. Why are they on the roster if they're not going to be deployed? It would have been very easy for the bullpen to soak up one more inning Tuesday night.

2005-06-02 19:10:24
10.   gregsmokler
amazing you are a peets man!
my mom used to bring back pounds of the original Peet's on trips up to the bay area and then I used to mail order it when I was in college in massachusetts.

now that I'm back living in LA i can get my fix at any number of locations. Right now I'm brewing the 39th anniversary blend which is quite tasty.

2005-06-02 22:19:05
11.   Derek J
Regarding the musical shortstops, you can take some comfort that according to WARP, things are much closer. When you factor in defense, Cabrera leads with 2.0 wins over replacement, followed by Eckstein at 1.8, and Renteria at 1.0.

Oh, and I love the idea of just making every Milton start a give-away night: Eric Commemorative Game-Used Baseball night.

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