With Carlos Beltran electing not to take the Astros "last, best offer" of reportedly $16 million a season, it leaves the division's most well-rounded team significantly weaker. Not only have they lost an elite level player, they may have a harder time convincing Roger Clemens to come back. I do think Clemens will pitch again, but let's look at what this does to the Astros roster.

pos 2004 2005 predicted VORP differential
CA - Ausmus same -2
1B - Bagwell same -12
2B - Kent Burke -33
SS - Everett same -1
3B - Ensberg/Lamb same -3
LF - Biggio same -22
CF - Beltran unknown -30
RF - Berkman same -35

Now, I'm making some assumptions here. First, I'm not penalizing Lance Berkman as much as I think likely after his knee surgery. His current statedtimeframe is really unlikely, but I wasn't prepared to try and figure out a more complex system of when he'd be back. I'm keeping Biggio in left - reports have Phil Garner reluctant to move him back to CF and somewhat reluctant to put him back at 2B. That Garner would consider this when Burke is ready says a lot. The VORP differential also is a simple one, not taking playing time into account. Finally, CF is only using Beltran's time with the Astros and replacing him with a league average CF.

It's this last assumption that is the least likely. The Astros now have a certain amount of free cash that they would have used on Beltran that they can now use to acquire someone else. The best options are through trade, so it will be interesting to see what they're forced to give up. Jason Lane is a guy I've liked and he's probably their best trade bait, yet he's also the best option in RF while Berkman is out and he could be a credible CF.

The Astros look like a team in significant decline. Remember that this is pretty typical for older teams. What isn't shown is the pitching and that's where this team looks to improve. They'll have a full season from Andy Pettitte, a likely return from Clemens, and that will help Roy Oswalt, someone who doesn't need much help to contend for a Cy Young. Add in a full season of Brad Lidge and this team is still dangerous.

It will be interesting to see if the Astros act or react. Tim Purpura would be smart to note last year's success and not go running after a Jose Cruz Jr. or Coco Crisp now, instead waiting to see if there will be better talent available over the summer. In the NL Central, no one's going to run away.