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Quiet Weekend
2004-12-19 04:12
by Will Carroll

Not like anything happened in the past couple days, has it?

Maybe Transaction Guy can answer me - is this the most movement we've seen in a one week period? It seems like it, with Oakland's moves and the ... well, the on-off-on-off Randy Johnson deal. How does this affect things, you ask? Tons has changed and I'm reminded that there's a lot of time left in the off-season. We'll see non-tenders this week. Last season, there was a lot of talk about a second round of players coming on the market and depressing things, but that's not going to happen, just as it didn't last year.

Let's do a quick "winners and losers" look at the rotations affected by recent deals (assuming that the Johnson trade happens as currently advertised) -- after the jump, of course.
Red Sox: Curt Schilling, Matt Clement, David Wells, Bronson Arroyo, Tim Wakefield
That looks pretty strong. Clement was a great signing, cheaper and better than Pavano. Assuming they can find a way to get through April without Schilling - there's plenty of candidates like Abe Alvarez, John Halama, or just four-manning until May - this will be nasty. It's also relatively reasonably priced. Still, "pretty strong" doesn't mean it's as good as 2004's rotation. It's not, but then again, does it need to be? WINNER

Mets: Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Victor Zambrano, Kris Benson, Steve Trachsel
Pedro! Say what you will, his track record is solid and he's been healthy over the past couple seasons. A full spring training with Rick Peterson, known for keeping his pitchers healthy, should certainly help. Martinez was essentially swapped in for Leiter at $5m extra and I think he'll certainly be worth that in 2005. Andrew Zimbalist had a nice article about the money of the deal in the NY Times, so this deal seems to work on most levels. I like it. WINNER

A's: Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Dan Meyer, Joe Blanton
I said back on December 1 that the Big Three might not be together much longer, but I certainly didn't expect this. Zito as the last Big standing? He had the least trade value, so I shouldn't be surprised. This will be a very young rotation and relies on Meyer and Blanton making the jump to the majors smoothly. I like this rotation a lot in '06 and '07, but if the money saved buys J.D. Drew in '05, there's not going to be much dropoff in Oakland. Remember, Billy Beane didn't suddenly get stupid. JURY'S OUT

Yankees: Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown. Pavano and Wright look a lot better at 3 and 4 than they did a week ago. Still overpaid, but what do you expect at this stage from the Yankees? Brown's still likely to be traded, but he's hardly a bad option for a five starter. If Johnson and Schilling match up in Yankee Stadium, we could have another epic like the July classic we got this season. Will Yankee pinstripes make the Unit look bigger than the purple ones he sported the past couple seasons? Yikes. In the end, the rotation with Johnson is only as good as it was supposed to be last season and more expensive. PUSH

Dodgers: Jeff Weaver, Jon Garland, Edwin Jackson, Joel Hanrahan, ??
Of all the moves, this one has me most stumped. Trading three pitchers and only getting one back is ... well, I'm stumped, alright? I'd fully expected the Dodgers to fill in the back of their rotation with one of the second tier starters. Now, they need to do that and sign Odalis Perez. Bringing back Perez and Jose Lima looks like their best play right now. I worry these trades are more about Frank McCourt than it is about DePodesta. INCOMPLETE. (Paul may re-apply for a grade later.)

D-Backs: Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, Russ Ortiz, Casey Daigle, Andrew Good.
This works if Penny's healthy and looks horrendous if he's not. Add in that Penny's facing arbitration and this might not be the savings many expect. Ortiz was simply an absymal signing, perhaps one of the worst of all time. I'll send Jeff Moorad a cheesecake if Ortiz is a 500 pitcher this season. Another troubled season in the desert for a team that thinks it's contending. LOSER

White Sox: Freddy Garcia, Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez, ??.
I don't know the Sox minors well enough to discern the fifth starter. Even so, the rotation LOOKS like something that could be good. Garcia and Buehrle are consistent, Contreras and Vazquez have upside, and it's not like the division has strengthened itself much this off-season. Maybe Kenny can convince Kevin Millwood to take a one-year deal - that'd be a move I'd applaud. PUSH

Cardinals: Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, Rick Ankiel.
That's not bad, especially if Carpenter is healthy. It's not going to look as good as the Cubs on paper, but that's a pretty high standard and the Cards have an offense the Cubs only dream of. Ankiel's broken out in Winter Ball, locking him in that five slot. Suppan could still be traded and if it can bring some depth, that's what the Cards need most. One injury crushes this staff. WINNER

Braves: Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, John Smoltz, John Thomson, Horacio Ramirez.
There are whispers that Billy Beane had reasons for dealing Tim Hudson now other than the return and the impending free agency. If true, doesn't trading him to Magic Man, Leo Mazzone, cancel that out? It gets a bit shaky at the back and counts on Smoltz to carry a full load rather than a prudent 140-180 innings. Smoltz doesn't have to be the ace he once was, just a very good 2 or 3 starter. WINNER

That's a surprising amount of winners. Of course, there's more to these deals than just the rotations. I'll leave that kind of analysis to Joe Sheehan, Dayn Perry, and the like. The pitching market is getting thin - only Odalis Perez, Derek Lowe, and Kevin Millwood are "names" left to sign - but trades happen. It's certain to be an interesting 45 days leading up to spring training.

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