My look through the NL gave us some interesting topics of discussion. It's clear that most teams are one pitcher short of a credible rotation. Expected free agent signings will surely fill in many of these, but most of them will not be with pitchers that can make a significant contribution. There's a reason it's called "replacement level" and all too often, fifth starters don't even reach that.

It would be interesting to know what the VORP of fifth starters was in 2004. A quick glance at the chart makes me think it's going to be very close to zero, saved only by the occasional outlier and a few teams that actually do go five deep. It'd also be interesting to try and quantify where in the rotation a pitcher should go. The Cubs clearly have a rotation full of aces. The Red Sox and D-Backs won World Series rings with the equivalent of a two man pitching staff. Perhaps the numbers aren't really important since we don't see ace vs ace matchups and the games won or lost at the middle or back of the rotation are just as important.

In other words, there's a lot more work to be done after this quick survey of the landscape. We're at least starting to ask the right questions.
AL East:

Red Sox: Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Bronson Arroyo, Abe Alvarez, Billy Traber (News flash - the rotation isn't going to look like that on the back end. Even with the chance of losing both Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, the Sox aren't going to risk defending their title with Traber at the back end - and I'll be honest, Traber's a flat guess based on their 40-man. This is only interesting to see how unsettled it actually is.)

Yankees: Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Tanyon Sturtze (Deja vu. This is again not going to be an Opening Day rotation. Even at the top, Brown and Vazquez are being shopped, so expect to see a vastly different rotation here. Again, the lesson is "unsettled." I do not understand why Jon Lieber isn't already signed here.)

Orioles: Sidney Ponson, Eric DuBose, Kurt Ainsworth, Matt Riley, Erik Bedard (Ick. Not a good rotation and I'd expect an addition or two here. The O's do have some depth here to work with and a couple decent minor league names. The problem is paying Ponson ace money for #3 level performance.)

Devil Rays: Scott Kazmir, Dewon Brazelton, Mark Hendrickson, Doug Waechter, Jorge Sosa (Bad sign when a guy barely out of Double-A with questionable mechanics is your ace. In Kazmir and Brazelton, they have a top of the rotation with as much downside as upside. I don't like their odds in that situation. They'd do well to keep developing some depth and filling in with some stopgaps like Esteban Loaiza. They'd do even better to go get a quality guy like Jon Lieber.)

Blue Jays: Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista, Josh Towers, David Bush (It all imploded with Halladay's injury last season, but he's back. Lilly and Batista did what was expected of them in their roles and Bush is the first of a bunch of prospects to make it. Experiments like Pat Henten now behind them, the Jays could get one more starter like Matt Clement and look pretty good.)

AL Central

Twins: Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva, J.D. Durbin, Joe Mays. (Okay, Mays is a bit of a reach, but there's plenty of depth here if he's still down. I really like Durbin and even with the loss of Radke, the Twins are in good shape. Did anyone notice Terry Mulholland made 15 starts for this team?)

White Sox: Freddy Garcia, Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, Scott Schoeneweis (Certainly solid at the top. The Sox will likely fill in one slot and hope that Contreras continues to improve out of the NY spotlight. With some luck, this is as good a rotation as the Sox have had in decades.)

Indians: C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Scott Elarton, Jake Westbrook, Brian Tallet (I want to like the Indians - young, exciting, great front office. I just have a hard time with this rotation. Sure, they could fill in, but does anyone believe that this rotation is going to get significantly better next season?)

Tigers: Mike Maroth, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Jason Johnson, Gary Knotts (Ok, there's a rotation. Bonderman could be special but the rest are just okay. Again, I don't expect this to be the rotation, but where's the improvement supposed to come from. I still hate that they moved the fences in. If I owned a team, I'd recreate the Polo Grounds or Griffith Stadium so fast it'd make your head spin.)

Royals: Zack Greinke, Jimmy Gobble, Dennis Tankersley, Mike Wood, Runelvys Hernandez (I like Greinke as much as any young pitcher in the game not named Prior. The rest leave me a bit cold. I guess there's some upside, especially on a team that doesn't figure to contend. They're essentially where Detroit was in '04, just looking for the guys that will help them in a couple years.)

AL West

Angels: Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, Chris Bootcheck (It looks like last year all over again. They could improve by signing a Carl Pavano or such, but this isn't bad at all. Very settled, reasonable depth, great bullpen behind them, and healthy. It's hard not to nod when you look at this.)

A's: Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton (Did I say the Angels looked very settled? THIS is settled. The Big Three may not be so big and may not be together much longer, but Harden may be better than all three by the end of the season. Everyone loves Blanton, assuming he wins the job over several other candidates and if not, there's crazy depth.)

Rangers: Kenny Rogers, Ryan Drese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, Chan Ho Park (One pitcher away from being very solid and I doubt they'll go get one of the big ones, which is kind of sad for this team. Derek Lowe might be an interesting experiment, but too expensive. I'd love to see Matt Clement and his K's end up here. I may be the only one not giving up on Park yet either.)

Mariners: Jamie Moyer, Ryan Franklin, Gil Meche, Joel Piniero, Clint Nageotte (For as bad as this team was, this isn't horrible. It could certainly improve with a nice pickup, some health, or Felix Hernandez pushing his way in. Daisuke Matsuzaka would make this really good.)