I'm a boxing fan, so Kerry wins on points. Better, he's heading into the "Town Hall" format that Bush tried to avoid. Bush simply doesn't connect well, think quickly (more on this later), and he's out of practice. There will be no loyalty oath at the debate, I hope.

Kerry? I worry about his patrician air (which can be spun easily. Try this - "Wow, doesn't Kerry kind of look like what John-John might have if he lived to sixty?") and his winding thoughts. My hope rests on a report from Friend of UTK/WCP Josh Orenstein. Maybe he'll comment here but I remember him saying that Kerry rocked the house in a town hall that he attended.

***

These instant polls are crap. Can we learn anything from them? Maybe. GOTV (Get Out The Vote) is perhaps the biggest difference-maker in the actual election. These polls may be some type of indicator. Atrios, Kos and others seem to have outflanked the Freepers and Insties on this one.

DNC, get a check. Make it out to those two, maybe a couple more. There's your "rapid response" force. Kos may be the Democratic Karl Rove (and yes, that's a compliment) in a few more cycles.

***

In Texas, Dubya was considered a joke heading into his debate with the sharp tongue of Ann Richards back in '94. No one gave him much of a shot outside of name recognition, funding, and Karl in the back room. The debate was a real turning point as the Yale-educated Bush turned up the rhetoric, beat back Richards' barbs, and generally wiped the floor with the then-Governor.

So, "wha' happened?"

There's about ten different Dubyas. There's Midland George, a young, stupid guy living off Daddy's money, drinking and hoping his wife couldn't find the keys. There's Governor George, who was sharp and well-spoken, not only pronouncing words, but using them in complete sentences. Now, we have Stumbling George, seemingly lost off his talking points.

Watching tonight, I think I spotted the difference. George pauses in front of big or complex words. Instead of the normal "he's an idiot" meme, I think he may be doing it intentionally. He deliberately dodged using the word "Baathist", doubling back to say "Saddam followers" only to double back again and say Baathist a few sentences later. It may be just tonight, so tell me if I'm way off base here.

***

And a baseball thought: I'll always love them, but the Cubs don't deserve to win. They're that friend that you always think will get his shit together and make something of himself. I guess they have a couple more shots this weekend and I'll cheer. On BPR this week though, I'll be wearing my Giants cap that I picked up at PacBell last year. If that doesn't work, I'm hoping Alex Belth and Jay Jaffe can use some company for the playoffs.