I'm not as much worried about Spencer Ackerman's great, great, great piece on the Bushies/Neocons putting pressure on Pakistan to deliver a "high value target" as most. I think most Americans would be smart enough to see the politics in play if, say, Zawahiri showed up the day of the Kerry keynote in Boston.

Then again, maybe not.

Without digging through too many polls telling us too many things, let's call the current campaign neck and neck, red and blue, whatever you feel comfortable with. It's close, definitely within the margin of error even after a bump from the Edwards announcement. Assuming all stays relatively normal over the next few weeks, Kerry/Edwards will get the bump from the Dem convention. (I'm not sure why. The conventions are boring, relatively meaningless, and barely covered. I don't know, but bloggers might push this slightly more mainstream, but I doubt it.)

Then comes the Republicans New York plan. I hope they don't co-opt too much of the imagery of the attacks, the WTC, etc, but I expect them to do so. It will play well on TV and with the ... shall we call it non-elite rather than unwashed masses and flagwaving xenophobes?

It's what comes next that worries me. The more I hear and think about it, I'm beginning to think that Cheney does get bumped from the ticket. Not so much bumped as "reprioritized." Rove and his crew isn't stupid and despite some recent missteps, I don't think they've lost it. Instead of saying Cheney gets bumped, Bush sells it as "We need Dick helping sell this to the allies. He needs to be Secretary of State." There will be some implied failure pointed at Colin Powell as he slinks off from his eight year dalliance with the Republicans. There will be some additional shuffling in the cabinet. It's typical and it will keep with the theme of reprioritization.

The one that stays, I think, is Rumsfeld. He's probably the best candidate for the VP slot, but even Rove will see that the negatives of that move are too strong. Who then gets the slot? There will be some endless speculation, perhaps just before or even during the convention. Like Kerry, the announcement will be placed for the highest media effect. As with Kerry's selection, the media will vette the usual suspects:

John McCain: Nope, doesn't fit in, but he gets a high profile speech at the convention and perhaps a cabinet slot. Homeland Security perhaps?

Tom Ridge: Homeland Security may be a mess and the color-coded system is making Ridge sound like he's crying wolf, but he's still well-known, is symbolic of the stateside terror focus, and he has a long-standing relationship with Bush.

Condi Rice: Nope. I'm not sure she stays as NSC - maybe Chief of Staff? Even with her rep, the country clubbers, let alone the country, isn't ready for a black female VP.

Rudy Giuliani: Here's the popular choice. He wasn't well-liked in NYC before he became "America's Mayor," but only people in NYC know that. He's great on TV, he's well-known, but according to people I've spoken to in DC, he's not a guy Bush would even consider. I haven't been able to test this, but evidently Bush doesn't feel that someone who has divorced is suitable for high office. If anyone can name a divorced Bush official, please feel free to correct this notion.

Jeb Bush: Perhaps, but it smacks of dynasty. Jeb's popular in Florida, but isn't charismatic enough to overcome the negatives. He'll do what he did last time - focus on delivering Florida. We'll see Jeb again in '08.

Mitt Romney: Could you vote for a guy named Mitt? He's not well-known enough and it would blunt some of the experience-based attacks on Edwards. Again, he's a face for '08.

Arnold: Damn that Constitution. Otherwise, maybe, even with all the negatives.

Frank Keating: Bit of a dark horse, but the Oklahoma governor stood out after the OKC bombings, has an FBI background, and few negatives. He doesn't bring much regionally to the ticket, lacks charisma, but he'd look strong.

Zell Miller: Would Rove reach across to the Democrat-in-name-only in order to look bipartisan? Perhaps, but Miller would be so controversial, it's not as big a positive as many thought McCain would be to Dems.

So, who's my favorite? One I haven't mentioned yet. One with the symbolism, the experience, and the all-powerful state in his back pocket. Sure, he lacks charisma and as much national notoriety, but tell me that George Pataki doesn't look like the perfect VP.

Bush-Pataki '04? Don't be surprised.