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Confining Beltran
2004-06-13 00:24
by Will Carroll

Since we know officially that Carlos Beltran is available - stunner, eh? - what might the Cubs offer to get him and is he even necessary?

Let's answer the latter first: One of the weak spots on the team has been Corey Patterson. While I think he has upside and was indeed rushed to the majors, as Dusty suggested, this team is in an odd configuration - it can win now without sacrificing the future. Jim Hendry and Onari Fleita deserve a ton of credit for building the team with the minor leagues, good trades, and smart free agent signings. Patterson, with an 8.1 VORP thus far and what I'd describe as above-average defense, is clearly inferior in almost every aspect to Beltran's 19.3 VORP. Beltran may not answer the Cubs need for a leadoff man, but he certainly makes the lineup look better immediately.

The only downside then is cost/value and what the Cubs have to give up. With the Tribune and Wrigley Field, the Cubs should not worry about $5m at this stage. With an additional playoff run, merchandise sales, etc, the move should be a wash and involves no long term risk (tho I would hope they would attempt to sign Beltran long term.)

What then could the Cubs dangle to the Royals to entice them from their best player? Taking into account the Royals preferences and payroll as well as the Cubs system and needs, an offer is pretty simple to come by:

A) Corey Patterson
B) one of David Kelton or Jason DuBois
C) one of the "Scos" - Sisco, Blassko, or Nolasco
D) Sergio Mitre

While the Cubs take on $5m in payroll from the Royals, they give up only a player immediately replaced by a better player, an outfielder caught behind a solid outfield this year and likely replaced by someone like Nic Jackson next season, one A/B pitching prospect (they'll still have several more, even if they give up the best of the bunch), and a C pitcher who could step into the Royals rotation now. Mitre could be upgraded to Matt Clement, but that seems like overkill.

The deal is right there and I doubt the other teams involved/interested could better this offer. Without an upgrade - this or another - I don't think the Cubs can equal last year's playoff run.

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