I mentioned George F. Kennan's landmark document - actually a telegraph, believe it or not - that became the foundation of Western strategy against Communism in my post about Clark's Neo-Reaganite Centrist strategy piece. I wanted to put a link in to The Sources of Soviet Conduct but didn't have one available. Thanks to Goldy for the link.

It's hard to look at this document in the proper context. It was written nearly sixty years ago, but it correctly predicted the fall of the Soviet Empire nearly fifty years before it happened. Not only that, he had the reasons down pat. The Soviets collapsed (more or less ... it could be argued that the Yeltsin-Putin governments have Soviet lineage, but that's another discussion) first by containment and controlled use of force, then internally.

While the rise of Solidarinosc in Poland wasn't explicitly stated in X (so named for the well-known anonymous signator of the "Long Telegram), it was implicit in the "rotting from the inside" theory. The Soviet Empire relied on its satellite nations and at the first sign of weakness - a protest that went unquashed - the game rapidly changed. Brezhnev's weak leadership, followed by short tenure leaders Andropov (the Soviet Bush "41") and Chernenko, started preparation for the leader strong enough to allow the teardown to happen.

Kennan is best known for his X Telegram,but it's often forgotten that he was also the true architect of the Marshall Plan, the economic assistance program that rebuilt Europe (and allowed for the structure of Soviet containment.) This site is a near encyclopedic recounting of Kennan's visionary career. Sadly, Kennan is nearly forgotten despite (as far as I can tell) still being alive at 100. The Bush Administration (and Clinton before him) has pushed the Kennanites aside with the new policy of pre-emption. Kennan discussed it in New Yorker back in 2002.

Kennan, instead, is a footnote, but I wonder if he minds much. For years, he was simply X, a diplomat and policy wonk, hidden in the machinations and bureaucracy of a true powerful Washington. Today, the power is in lobbyists and think tanks - with nary a Kennan among them.