Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
scott@scottlongonline.com
When the White Sox chose Ozzie Guillen as manager, I was horrified, as Ozzaroo was one of the worst statistical players in baseball history. With a lifetime OBP of only .287 (.23 points above his batting average) and a slugging average of .338, Guillen's miserable .625 OPS could only be surpassed by his reckless style on the base paths accumulating 169 steals out of 277 attempts (60% success). Throw in that the guy is completely schizophrenic and not known for his tactical baseball knowledge and of course you know that Jerry Reinsdorf and Kenny Williams had to hire him.
Despite his demonstrated record in the past, I've tried to be non-judgmental the first month of the year. Now it's time to judge.
From day one, Ozzie has stated that the White Sox would play aggressive baseball, not being afraid to manufacture runs by playing small ball. Of course when your starting roster has Frank Thomas, Carlos Lee, Paul Konerko, Joe Crede, and Magglio Ordonez, small ball doesn't seem like the best strategic plan. So right from the start, Ozzie seemed to be about as good of a fit with the Sox, as Kerri Strug doing a porno scene with Ron Jeremy. Smartly, Guillen has mainly used this style with the 3 guys on the team who have some speed, Willie Harris, Miguel Olivo, and Juan Uribe. So far the returns are 13 steals out of 16 attempts, which registers out to be a very worthwhile 81% success rate. The big boppers have not been asked to sacrifice bunt any runners over, so that is a good sign, also.
Guillen's handling of the pitching staff has been very different than past manager, Jerry Manuel, as he has not been afraid to let his starting pitchers work their ways out of jams. One reason Ozzie might be doing this is that the bullpen has had no consistent ability to get outs at the end of games. Despite all the talk that the White Sox were going to miss players like Carl Everett and Roberto Alomar, the guy that the team misses the most is Tom Gordon. Kenny Williams has struck out on the acquisitions of Billy Koch and Shingo Tataksu, though the revival of Mike Jackson has given Williams something to hang his hat on.
On the subject of Williams is there anyone else in baseball with a more checkered trading history? In the book "Moneyball" Williams was seen as a stooge for Billy Beane, especially during the Chad Bradford deal. I was one of the few upset White Sox fans when the trade went down, but Williams might have the last laugh, as the player the White Sox received for Bradford, Miguel Olivo, continues to improve and already might be the 4th best overall catcher in the AL, behind Posada, Lopez and IRod. As bad as the Keith Foulke/Billy Koch deal looks on a one for one basis, Williams should be commended for picking up throw-in pitcher Neal Cotts, who looks like he has the chance to be quality back of the rotation starter. Williams worst trade by far was giving up Kip Wells for Todd Ritchie, but he made up for some of that failed deal by getting back in another trade from the Pirates, Damaso Marte for Matt Guerrier. The trade for Juan Uribe (for Aaron Miles) looks like it could turn out to be a steal, as Uribe is only 24 years old and seems to be thriving without the pressure of being a "future star" the Rockies put on him.
So the White Sox sit at 12-8, which is a good start for a team who rarely gets off to them. The AL Central looks to be a two-team race between the Twins and the White Sox. With Jon Garland looking like he will perform up to the promise he has shown in the past and Esteban Loaiza and Mark Buehrle sitting solidly at the top of the rotation, the Sox seem to have an advantage over the Twins in starting pitching. Despite losing Guardado and Hawkins, the Twins bullpen looks to be superior to what's on the South-side. Even though the White Sox have improved their defense, the edge would still go to the Twins. If the White Sox are going to win the Central, their hitting, as usual, will have to lead them. Currently, having Willie Harris leading off with his .294 OBP is hurting the team. The White Sox seem to have two positions ripe for platoon action with Harris splitting time with Uribe and minor league sensation, Jeremy Reed leading off against righties, while Aaron Rowand doing the same against lefties. (Rowand has a career OPS of .834 versus LHP.)
So is Ozzie Guillen the right guy for the job? One month into the season I would give him a B-grade, as his enthusiasm and passion for playing hard has rubbed off positively on a team, which has sleepwalked the last few years. A lot of people have attacked him for making some brash statements, like ripping the media for being fixated on the Cubs. From the outside, these comments seem like sour grapes, but this point of view is what the White Sox players and fans feel, which during the first season might be a useful motivation tool for Guillen. I still have a hard time imagining Ozzie Guillen being a long-term success as a manager, but in the short-term, he might just be the right guy to lead this team into the playoffs.
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