I've been playing around with a couple things while I'm teaching myself Excel. I think this entry will be something like the Letterman segment "Is This Anything?" If you haven't seen it, you're missing some fun stuff. It's not "Will It Float?" but it does also have the Grinder Girl.

As I'm sure you've all read Doug Pappas' amazing work on Marginal Wins per Dollar Spent, I've wondered how to break it down to a player level. This is still an expirement, but the economists and that statheads can really dig into this one and tell me where I'm wrong and (hopefully) where I'm onto something.

So, here's the chart, courtesy of labelmate Jon Weisman:

SALARY (data from Dugout Dollars)
VORP (projected VORP at PECOTA midpoint)
VORP(t): Percent of team's total VORP player is expected to contribute
M$/VORP: Cost of each point of VORP above minimum salary
(Sal)VORP: Dollars "earned" by distributing available team salary according to percentage of VORP contributed
(Sal)DIFF: Premium or discount between actual salary and 'earned' salary

I've used the Cubs for mere familiarity and of course, when in doubt, use the Cubs. As I've said, I'm not sure that this "analysis" means much of anything, but I do think there's some interesting things to be learned here. First, there may be a top level where no matter the VORP, there's simply no way to "earn" a salary. It looks to be somewhere south of $10m, but I haven't done the math. There's also some interesting stuff at the bottom and I think playing with the low end of the spectrum might also bring some knowledge up. I think we might find that a replacement level player might not even be worth the minimum salary.

Also, there's lots of factors that we can't add in here. Some players put butts in seats, as Pete calls it, and others have something of a sentimental value. I'd also be curious to see how the Y3-6 players look as this gets broken out to more teams ... or, if it gets broken out to more teams. The biggest problem is the DIV/0 issue, one I'm not sure at all how to deal with.

So, there's my first math wizardry. Don't expect much from someone who's only in his second year at the baseball version of Hogwarts, but hold me to a high standard as well.