Best Picture: The Return of the King
Peter Jackson's epic is finally rewarded. Turning what could have been a monstrous geekfest into an epic for everyone is the biggest cinematic "moment" of my lifetime and ranks with Star Wars and the Godfather.
Best Actor: Bill Murray
It's the toughest race of the night with Sean Penn's widely touted turn and Johnny Depp's populist pirate going neck and neck. The movie of the night is going to be TFD's #1 and that momentum carries Murray. This isn't a fluke - his role in Rushmore was dreadfully overlooked and he's been good for a long, long time.
Best Actress: Charlize Theron
Mortal lock of the night. Oscar likes physical transformations for actors, from Nicole's nose to Daniel's left foot. I always have a hard time with "true story" acting - is it imitation or acting? I haven't seen Monster, but I'll listen to the experts that Theron blew the field away.
Best Director: Peter Jackson
Oh yeah, another mortal lock. 'Nuff said before.
Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins
Don't think, Meat. Robbins is the Clint Eastwood of this generation without the iconography. I can't think of anyone who's done as much as well. I felt Robbins performance was one of the best of Mystic River - cool exterior barely holding what lay beneath.
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Clarkson
I'll go with Clarkson on body of work. Add in The Station Agent and her work that's more widely seen on Six Feet Under and she's done some amazing acting in the last twelve months. Zellweger's too cartoonish and comes with a movie that Oscar widely ignored and too few saw Holly Hunter's amazing role.
Best Song: Ain True Love
Anything with Alison Krauss should win. Period.
Documentary: Fog Of War
Oscar likes politics.
Best Original Screenplay: Lost In Translation
In any other year, Coppola gets Best Director. She'll win more than her father.
Best Adapted Screenplay: City of God
I don't have a clue here, so I'll go with Harvey.
Foreign Film: The Barbarian Invasions
Sounds cool, but I bet there's no invasions in it.
So, comment your own picks and we'll see how we do later tonight. The red carpet is on NOW (1.30pm EST) in HD, so that will be cool.