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Second Half Predictions
2008-07-17 09:21
by Scott Long

Here is the way I see the teams shaking out.


Red Sox

Yankees (4 games back)

Devil Rays 10

Blue Jays 10

Orioles 17


White Sox

Twins 6

Tigers 8

Royals 15

Indians 17



A's 5

Rangers 14

Mariners 30



Mets 2

Braves 3

Marlins 4

Nationals 23



Brewers 4

Cards 10

Reds 10

Astros 10

Pirates 12



Dodgers 1

Giants 3

Padres 4

Rockies 7

I think the home team advantage trend continues. The Twins and D-Rays have played 50 games at home to lead the majors. Of contending teams, the White Sox (45) have played the least home games. (The Orioles have played just 41, so their first schedule was brutal.)

I will take the Yankees and Brewers as wild card teams. I will stick to my pre-season champ of the Angels. I didn't make NL pre-season picks because I thought all the teams were pretty flawed. I believe the Cubs are the one quality team in the NL, but they are the Cubs, so I will take the Phillies to lose in the World Series.




2008-07-17 09:54:54
1.   Will Carroll
Scott, your math is way off on this. Many of these are impossible. You're also predicting that a team that's winning at a 58% clip is going to drop off by 15%, or to go 30-38 the rest of the way assuming the Red Sox stay at their 95 win pace. I know you're wagging this, but you need to show your work on this one.
2008-07-17 11:46:29
2.   Scott Long
I am assuming the D-Rays will go around 32-36 the rest of the year. I know it doesn't come out perfectly, but I don't have the time to and don't have the interest in doing it perfectly. Those of you that don't like my math, just look at the standings. Those of you who see how teams will play the rest of the year, look at the games back.
2008-07-17 12:44:40
3.   Bluebleeder87
hey Scott the FOTC video was smashing baby smashing!
2008-07-17 12:46:52
4.   Bluebleeder87
oh! & I don't agree with your NL West predection.
2008-07-17 13:36:36
5.   Gagne55
1 30-38 the rest of the way sounds about right for the Rays. I expect no better than .450 ball from the Rays in the second half and it's refreshing to see somebody agree as opposed to the whole FOX/ESPN "the Rays are for real." Everyone looks good when they're winning. Didn't stop the 2003 Royals, 2005 Nats, etc. from falling off a cliff in the second half.
2008-07-17 13:57:12
6.   RIYank
I don't think Scott's prediction (for the AL East) is outlandish. The Rays could be a .500 club the rest of the way and it wouldn't surprise me at all. If they lost four extra games, that would be surprising but not shocking.

Now what does the Toaster do with the mandatory fine Scott has to pay for reverting to the banned old name of the Tampa team?

2008-07-17 15:49:50
7.   Scott Long
No accident there, RIYank, Tampa started playing like the D-Rays 2 weeks ago and it will continue.
2008-07-17 20:33:00
8.   CharlesFosterKane
Regression is to be expected, but to suggest a 2003 Royals or 2005 Nationals drop off just makes no sense.

The team is fundamentally more talented than an all-star squad of the two clubs combined.

Teams that are playing well defensively and have deep starting pitching rarely fall off a cliff.

I just can't see them falling more than a couple games short of .500 in the season's last ten.

2008-07-17 21:29:07
9.   Scott Long
I'm saying they will be 6 games under the rest of the way. Not a fall off the map type of performance. I saying they win 87 games. Not an off the charts type fall, especially when they play 6 more games on the road than at home. I think there defense and relief pitching come back to earth in the 2nd half. We will see.

By the way, I suspect the A's fall more than 5 games behind, considering they have traded Blanton and Harden. Should have factored that in.

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