We have officially reached the point where it actually MAKES SENSE to have the allocation of Democratic delegates from Michigan decided by Nate Silver. I just got home and started reading this from Chuck "The O.G." Todd:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24890836/
Money quote:
"As many have noted, census data for each state have been remarkably determinative of results since Super Tuesday. In fact, the support groups for the two candidates have been incredibly stable. Why not apply what we've learned about the support groups of both candidates and split the delegates accordingly?
I guarantee you that the chief delegate counters of both campaigns as well as a few observers (like Democratic numbers guru Mark Gersh) could get together in a room and agree on which Congressional District each candidate would carry and by what percentage within, say, 5 points."
Why use amateurs when you can bring in the professionals?:
Nate's comment:
"Thanks, Matthew. I'm mildly surprised that nobody had figured it out. The Michigan analysis I did last week was basically a lo-fi version of PECOTA."
Yeah, I figured "Poblano" had to be at least familiar with sabermetrics, if not immersed in it--there was too much similarity in mindset. When Nate unveiled himself, though, I just had to laugh. Made too much sense.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24890836/
Money quote:
"As many have noted, census data for each state have been remarkably determinative of results since Super Tuesday. In fact, the support groups for the two candidates have been incredibly stable. Why not apply what we've learned about the support groups of both candidates and split the delegates accordingly?
I guarantee you that the chief delegate counters of both campaigns as well as a few observers (like Democratic numbers guru Mark Gersh) could get together in a room and agree on which Congressional District each candidate would carry and by what percentage within, say, 5 points."
Why use amateurs when you can bring in the professionals?:
Nate's comment:
"Thanks, Matthew. I'm mildly surprised that nobody had figured it out. The Michigan analysis I did last week was basically a lo-fi version of PECOTA."
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/michigan-what-would-have-happened.html
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.