Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
scott@scottlongonline.com
The Juice Blog is excited to unveil the newest baseball prediction tool called the SWOBODA. This revolutionary new system is named after below-average New York Mets' outfielder, Ron Swoboda, who parlayed one great catch off of the bat of Brooks Robinson during the '69 Series, into becoming a minor celebrity. the SWOBODA is an acronym which stands for Statistically Worthless Official Baseball Operationally Designed Algorithm. While the acronym does seem a bit silly, it doesn't seem much worse than Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA).
Breaking down the SWOBODA into 3 parts I hope will make it easier to understand.
By the way, I had heard of the word, but had no idea what algorithms were until I looked it up in the Dictionary before I wrote this piece. Not proud to say this, but I've already forgotten what it means. My brain is filled with much more important stuff like Phylicia Rashad (Mrs. Cosby) was once married to the cop from the Village People, Victor Willis, but their union desolved because of the Macho Man's cocaine abuse. If you wanted clever insights on algorithms, you wouldn't be here in the first place.
A few unique elements that make Swoboda so special are...
While the SWOBODA is completely untested for baseball, I have used it for American Idol voting and it has spit out that Sanjaye! will be not be sent home, so that's good enough for me. (the SWOBODA predicts Sanjaye! will make it for 3 more weeks.) Considering that it's next to impossible to pick the National League this year, I have let my trusty system make the predictions.
NL EAST
NL CENTRAL
NL WEST
the SWOBODA comes up with only one team (the Braves) reaching 90 wins. In the Central, there will be only a space of 8 games between first and fifth place. Same goes for the West. The Dodgers sneak by the Mets, Phillies, and Cards for the Wild Card. I like the Padres to make it to the World Series, as manager Bud Black will shape the best pitching staff in the NL.
I will post more features from the SWOBODA, when I have more time to make them up.
.341 / .498 / .780 in 162 games played.
Meanwhile, this is what BOMPs projected for Adrian Beltre in 2006:
.131 / .142 / .211
Here's POMPs's projection for Carl Pavano, 2007:
43 IP, 14.56 ERA, and an assortment of hangnails, plantar warts, and toothaches.
And Daisuke Matsuzaka, per POMPs:
BESTRIDES THE EARTH IN VICTORY. RED SOX TO WIN NEXT FIVE WORLD SERIES.
I say PECOTA
You like Lou Brock
I, Manny Mota
SWOBODA, PECOTA
Nissan, Toyota
Let's call the whole thing off
NL East - Phils, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nats
NL Central - Brewers, Cards, Cubs, Astros, Reds, Pirates
NL West - D-backs, Padres, Rockies, Dodgers, Giants.
Mets in WC.
Phils to WS.
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