Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
scott@scottlongonline.com
I read this blurb on benmaller.com, which was written by Ed Price of the Star-Ledger. (Put it in your bookmark section, as benmaller.com is the best sports link site on the web.)
Chien-Ming Wang's rate of 2.77 strikeouts per nine innings pitched is last among the 90 pitchers in the majors who qualify for the ERA title. Yet despite the lack of strikeouts, Wang -- scheduled to start tonight as the Yankees open a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox -- is 13-4. With 48 strikeouts so far, Wang could become the first pitcher in 17 years to win 15 games but finish with fewer than 75 strikeouts.
I've been blasted here in the past for not valuing strkeout ratio, enough, but I really think it's an overvalued commodity for starting pitchers. The approach I would take in building a team would be to try to build my staff with starting pitchers who have great control. These pitchers are generally cheaper buys and hold up better, as they have lower pitch counts per inning. By having lower pitch counts, they generally go longer into a game, minimizing the importance of the bullpen. I know this isn't revolutionary thinking, but I still read too many people I have a lot of respect for in the sabermetrical world who rate strikeout ratio too highly.
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After seeing the most recent Vegas odds on who will win the Super Bowl, I would have to say the best bet is Carolina at 12-1. For a longshot, take a flyer on the Vikings at 30-1. Since the AFC is the dominant league, it's a lot easier to get to the Super Bowl from the NFC side and once you get there, you have a puncher's chance. (Remember the Seahawks outplayed the Steelers last year.) Why I like the Vikings this year is they should be more focused, after dealing with the Party Boat all last year, plus getting rid of Mike Tice should help them for an extra win or two. They will have one of the best offensive left sides of the line, with the top guard in the NFL, Steve Hutchinson joining the team. Add to this the return of a healthy Matt Birk at center and they are my sleeper.
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The NFL announced that one of the candidates to replace Paul Tagliabue, CEO of Domino's David Brandon, had withdrawn his name. Why would the NFL want to be their new commisioner a CEO of a pizza chain that I wonder how is still in business. Domino's makes lousy pizza and ever since they discontinued the 30 minutes of free gimmick, they haven't had a corporate identity. Hey NFL, while you're looking at failed leaders from companies based in Michigan, why not give Bill Ford a call? I mean he has experience at running a sinking ship of a car company and a football team, all at the same time.
"And as my firxt proclamation in trying to alienate all my loyal NFL customers, I will have American Idol's Taylor Hicks warble his 3rd rate Doobie Bros. jingle at halftime of every game."
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On the upcoming cover of Vibe Magazine, Janet Jackson has a picture where she is topless, but holding hers arms across her breasts. Cleverly, her infamous nipple is exposed, which I usually have no problem with. Janet is the exception. Since her nipple stunt at the Super Bowl, the moral police have used this incident to crack down on lots of other broadcast mediums that have nothing to do with the half-time fiasco. I'm on a lot of morning radio shows and disc jockeys are still running scared trying to figure out what they can and can't say. The Bush administration's FCC head has led the charge to institute totally insane fines against broadcasters. Hey, Janet (or Miss Jackson if your nasty), keep your Hoots to yourself, as a lot of us only have negative thoughts when we see them.
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Question for Mel Gibson: If the Jews start all the wars, how do you explain Braveheart? From what I know about the history of William Wallace, he was a Scotsman who led his fellow countrymen against the British. I don't believe any of the Kings of England were of Jewish ancestory. Of course, the historical accuracy of Braveheart is not a lot better than the Passion of the Christ, but even if he just relied on his own movie's script, he would realize that his anti-semetic rants are pathetic.
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Quick follow-ups on a few subjects discussed here recently.
* Last Comic Standing was excellent last week, as all 3 comedians left had very funny sets. While Josh Blue has been the stand-out personality on the show so far, I would mention that Chris Porter has a bigger wealth of material, which might be enough to push him over the top. Consider that if a comic does six different sets of comedy during the show's duration, the finalist's will have to perform around 30 minutes of TV-friendly material. Hey folks, that is not easy. Congrats to Josh, Chris, and Ty Barnett, as you are putting stand-up comedy in a good light. Also, Caroline Rhea's guest set last week, was really funny as well.
* The HBO documentary show, Tourgasm, had it's best episode last week, as it featured early video of the 4 main players on the program. All comedians have some embarassing early moments on tape doing open-mikes at dive bars. While practically none of us working comics will experience a sold-out auditorium like Dane Cook, the early videos presented a mirror of what comedy is like when you start out. Unlike music or acting, there are a very few overnight sensations in the stand-up world. It's more of a grind, where you develop your material and stage presence over time. From what I know, Dane Cook was no overnight sensation, as he's been working at his craft for a long time.
* The latest Muse CD, Black Holes and Revelations, just gets better and better. If you haven't checked it out, what are you waiting for?
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Scott Long will be appearing at the new Chicago IMPROV with Frank Caliendo, October 19-22. I modestly mention that will be the Chicago Comedy Event of the Year, so I recommend getting tickets soon.
Make sure to check out me at myspace to become my superficial friend!
*Disclaimer, I don't really believe that he's going to be in the HOF someday.
He probably is capable of posting a better strikeout rate. Wang has great command with his sinker even with all the movement he gets on it, so he rarely has any difficulty throwing for strikes. Also, the 93-96 mph sinker translates into an excellent 4-seamer; he's hit 98 on the gun when he's been content to throw the ball straight. Mixing that with his slider could be very effective.
Frankly, since the sinker is that good, I'd rather see the long outings and low pitch counts. It would be nice to know for certain, though, that he could strike people out if he wanted to. All I'm doing is guessing that he could based on stuff.
http://tinyurl.com/hps4j
It would explain how the Jews started that particular war. And a lot of other ones.
On another note, the problem with the kind of staff you advocate building is that it has much less margin for error. If your defense degrades just a little bit, or someone's walk rate has an upward blip, things can go south in a big hurry. The Twins in the early parts of this season are a good example: Other than Santana (Liriano still being in the pen at that point), their rotation was made up almost entirely of pitch-and-catch guys who relied on low walk rates and defense. With a couple of statues on the left side of the infield and slightly less pinpoint control than previously, suddenly Carlos Silva and Brad Radke didn't look so hot. Their early struggles prevented their hot streak from putting them way out front in the Wild Card race. Such are the perils of such a pitching staff.
That he's succeeded in front of those guys suggests that his balls in play may be rather easy to convert into outs. I don't have his BIPA in front of me, though.
PECOTA has him near the 75th percentile in balls in play, but his DERA is 3.66 this year, which is very close to his raw ERA.
Here it goes. Phuck off.
I will write whatever I want to write about and you will make the decision to check in here again or not. I would agree that the whole Mel Gibson thing is overplayed, but I hadn't heard anyone discuss the point that he made a couple of war movies that had nothing to do with Jews. (The Patriot as well)
Every once in a while I need to explain to newer readers here at the Toaster that thejuiceblog is a site that features baseball, not filled with it. There are plenty of other great sites here to check out, so please visit those and keep your stick to baseball comments to yourself.
Thanks for giving me the opportunity to reiterate my feelings.
Your friend, Scott
I think my strikeout staff beats your control staff both in the short term and the long term. Strikeouts deny a batted ball in play and damn near anything can happen with a batted ball in play. The control guys could try to make a living getting the batters to hit 'em where they ain't but it's a gamble that doesn't pay off in the long run.
The great pitchers who pitched forever all had above average "K" rates OR they were very, very good in the categories that don't have to do with a batted ball in play (homeruns and walks). Tommy John would be my prime example.
If I were playing fantasy baseball, I would look for the guys who had poor records but had good K/W ratios. Those are the guys who would be due for good seasons. By the same token, I'd avoid (or draft for a later trade) the guys who had good records but poor K/W rates because those guys were going to regress. This isn't me talking here (hell, this is research and I'm allergic to it) but Bill James who did a detailed study. It had me convinced.
Again, have a great show in the Windy City.
I have many friends who when they get drunk will do and say things that they would never do otherwise. Now, you may question that they wanted to do it, and therefore, the alcohol simply releases that inhibition. Or, perhaps, they've got some deeper emotional problems, and they just spew whatever hatred is the "hatred du jour".
As well, if someone aplogizes, does it mean nothing at all? I don't know if it necessarily should wipe the slate clean, but someone who repents should be forgiven. Again, you have to appreciate the level of sincerity of it. In the end, the proper thing to do is to give the person the chance to prove himself.
As for Wang, he's an extreme GB pitcher. What "sabes" love is K-BB per BFP and a high GB rate.
What about The Noid?
You can't avoid him, Scott.
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