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How's My Drafting, The Sequel
2006-02-16 20:41
by Will Carroll

Because we had such an overwhelming response to the last one like this --- there's nothing less interesting than talking about other people's fantasy teams --- and because taking cheap shots at me seems to be the sport of the day, why not see how I did in the XM Radio league. Jeff Erickson put this together and it includes some real experts like Ron Shandler, Eric Karabell, Greg Ambrosius, and Steve Moyer.

This draft was worse than my Sportsline NL League for interminable. Some people had connection problems, some were late, some drafted by phone. That doesn't make for a fun draft, let alone a fast one. I cut out at 3.30, got back online at 5 and found out I'd only autopicked 9 rounds! Despite the autopilot for the latter rounds, I still came out okay IMO.

14 team, mixed 5x5 league, I picked 13th ... Here we go:

1/13 Andruw Jones - Defense doesn't count, but the guy was the HR champ last season and he put on 20 lbs of muscle this offseason. Jason Giambi might be wondering where the press is on this, but I like Jones' chance of continuing a run of big power seasons at this age.
2/16 Barry Bonds - yes, again. I've picked him in every draft so far. I'm either very right or very wrong.
3/41 Joe Mauer - there was a run on catchers and I had the chance to grab Mauer. He was the highest ranked player on my board, so it was worth the gamble both on talent and scarcity.
4/44 Roy Halladay - Experts leagues always wait on pitching. In past years, I've gone contrary and grabbed up pitching, but being on the end of the draft makes that strategy harder. I'll go with my "one ace, four jacks" plan and grab Halladay as the stud.
5/69 Jim Edmonds - Even in a league that's OF rather than R/C/L, Edmonds is still a solid guy. This seals up the first three in my OF, so I can get off that for a while and work on the infield.
6/72 Scott Rolen - Rolen slid in here and I've already taken him in a couple leagues. Coming back from his shoulder surgery, I'm less scared than most at the prospects of a return to form.
7/XX Bobby Jenks - Probably my dumb pick. I missed out on the elite closers and wanted Isringhausen here, but he went just ahead. Jenks will get opportunities and his team will win close games, but this was a reaction pick rather than a good plan.
8/XX Bobby Crosby - I've stopped doing the math to figure the overall pick. Crosby's a bit higher than I'd like in retrospect, but I've noticed a blind spot I have for shortstops. I have a tendency to punt the position unless I grab an elite guy in the top round. I've been stung by this a couple times (trading Ben Sheets for Alex (FL) Gonzalez a couple years ago because I didn't draft a SS and was hung out before rosters locked.) Not a bad pick here, but probably a round or two high.
9/XX Craig Biggio - Having missed Rickie Weeks (again) a few rounds earlier, I wanted to go ahead and complete my middle infield here. Perhaps a little higher than he should go, but not likely to be a bad pick.
10/X Mark Mulder - Starting to look for pitching here and I'll always take a good pitcher on a good team. Mulder certainly has upside. He's in his walk year as well, so I like this one a lot.
11/X Jeremy Bonderman - A good pitcher on an improving team in a pitcher's park. That's not a bad combo, tho Bonderman's shutdown at the end of last season worries me. There was a run on pitching so Bonderman was perhaps a slight overdraft but again, draft position really affected strategy. A lot of guys I liked went in the picks just ahead of me here.
12/X Jeff Weaver - One year deal with a good team? Worth a risk.
13/X Roger Clemens - Speaking of risks, Clemens was staring at me for the past couple rounds and someone was going to take him. Having locked up three solid pitchers ahead of him, I could afford to take the risk on Clemens.
14/X Todd Jones - I was running out of save opp guys and Jones is at least a good bet to be a decent 20 save guy. I missed Armando Benitez and Scot Shields, so Jones is ... well, eh.
15/X Chris Capuano - I went on autopick here coming back for the last two picks (24/25). The top guy left when it came to me is a 19 game winner on an improving team. Maybe I should autodraft more often.
16/X Joey Gathright - If he gets playing time, he'll get steals. Since Biggio's really my only speed guy and he's slowed down significantly, Gathright's well worth the risk here. If Delmon Young doesn't crash the party or if the Rays deal Gathright as many expect, he'll be the steal of my draft.
17/X Dave Roberts - Once again, there were some steals on the board. Roberts has a significant injury risk, but this late, he's well worth the gamble.
18/X Russ Adams - the autopicks missed a couple better middle infielders, but Adams should do better than expected with a better lineup around him.
19/X Mike Jacobs - Much lower than in the Sportsline draft, largely because of no catcher eligibility in this rule set. I still love the pick this low, having passed on the big guns at the position.
20/X B.J. Upton - This low? Ok, I'll gladly take this kind of upside, even with a risk that he's not up before July. Paired with the Adams pick, this is pretty solid.
21/X Rob Mackowiak - I'm not sure how Ozzie will use him (and when did the one-name Ozzie become Guillen instead of Smith?) but I'll take the risk on a guy who's been a starter and has multiple position eligibility. If he beats out Joe Crede, this is a very nice steal. If Ozzie uses Mackowiak as his superutility guy, it's almost as good.
22/X Nate McLouth - not the greatest autopick in the world, but McLouth is as good as Chris Duffy and he's the Pirate CF without a torn hammy. Won't have the steal totals, but he's got a good steal ratio and more power than Duffy. A nice backup/reserve pick.
23/X Carlos Silva - I guess no one believes in his control. He's healthy this season, so this sure isn't a bad pick. LAIMs like Silva, especially with his WHIP, are valuable.
24/X Damian Miller - He'll get the starts in Milwaukee and he's a known quantity with the bat. I'll take a guy like that here in the latter stages.
25/X Darin Erstad - Late game positional move. Jacobs is young and I had no 1B backup, so Erstad's a low risk play for my last pick.
26/X Yusmeiro Petit - Last pick, so make it a good one. One of my favorite pitching prospects with a good chance at the rotation. PECOTA loves him, so why not?

The autopicks were as good as anything I'd make, so I'm happy with that. Some decent upside, good across categories. I think I'm a bit weak on runs, but I should be competitive to mediocre across the board. There's no one on the team I hate, so it's at least got that going for it. Your thoughts?

Comments
2006-02-16 22:40:32
1.   Palo20
Why Weaver so high? I thought Capuano would go before him. Definitely worth the risk on Clemens at 13. Is Petit going to be in the bigs this year? And 20 lbs. of muscle in an offseason for Andruw is pretty solid.
2006-02-17 08:33:33
2.   Will Carroll
I like Weaver - good pitcher on a good team theory again, plus he's essentially in a walk year, seeing that he's this year's Millwood.

Petit - not sure, but I don't see what the Fish have as another option. I'd fully expected to see a bunch of cheap Quad-A guys signed by Florida to cover for the fact that they only have a couple good players, esp pitchers, but it never happened.

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