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Scott's MLB Rankings: 1-30
2005-03-31 13:16
by Scott Long

1. Boston Red Sox- Best regular season record.
2. New York Yankees- Another Wild Card wins the World Series.
3. St. Louis Cardinals- Still the class of the NL.
4. Anaheim Angels- Hitting and bullpen bails out starting pitching.
5. Minnesota Twins- Santana is the most important player to his team in MLB.
6. Florida Marlins- Have the right elements to beat Cards in playoffs.
7. New York Mets- The NL Wild Card will resemble the 1967 AL race.
8. Chicago White Sox- The last 3 acquisitions in the off-season gives them a chance.
9. Chicago Cubs- If Wood and Prior stay healthy, bump this team to wildcard. IF?
10. Atlanta Braves- I'm still trying to figure out how last year's title happened.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers- The best team in baseball's worst division.
12. San Diego Padres- One year away from being a pennant contender.
13. Philadelphia Phillies- The top 4 teams in NL East will be separated by 7 games.
14. Texas Rangers- Offense and Cordero keep them in it like last year.
15. Oakland A's- One year blip, as some of the young pitchers struggle.
16. San Francisco Giants- Worst baseball year in the bay area in quite a long time.
17. Houston Astros- Same as 2004 team, without the August and September run.
18. Cleveland Indians- Lack of pitching grounds pre-season flavor of the month.
19. Baltimore Orioles- What an offense they would have been, 4 years ago.
20. Pittsburgh Pirates- Bullpen woes keep them from being a bigger surprise.
21. Toronto Blue Jays- Didn't like the direction the team went in the off-season.
22. Milwaukee Brewers- Future is looking brighter. Take the Brat on opening day.
23. Detroit Tigers- If I were doing this team's THR there would be a lot of RED.
24. Seattle Mariners- Should score more runs, but not enough to bail out pitching.
25. Arizona Diamondbacks- Lot of money spent to be this low on the list.
26. Cincinnati Reds- It takes more than a good outfield to win. No joy in Porkopolis.
27. Tampa Bay Devil Rays- How is this team supposed to compete in the AL East?
28. Colorado Rockies- Some of the young players gives this team some hope.
29. Washington Nationals- With Bowden as GM, they resemble past DC. (Senators)
30. Kansas City Royals- And to think, some were picking them to win 2004 Central.

Comments
2005-03-31 15:27:54
1.   TFD
Scott: Great stuff. TFD
2005-03-31 16:00:27
2.   David C
White Sox - Eigth best team in Baseball?

BTW - dropped by to see if there was any info on that stand-up comic that just passed away today. Don't know his name but I'm familiar with his material...

2005-03-31 16:50:56
3.   cryingdutchman
The Pirates' offense will be of far greater concern than the bullpen. But 20th is certainly a fair ranking.
2005-03-31 18:01:16
4.   RickM
I'm always leary about giving my opinion of who is going to win and lose, since I'm no better a prognosticator that anyone else.

But that doesn't prevent me from critiqing your picks ...

David C is right about the White Sox

The team the Twins have to worry about is Cleveland.

Los Angeles isn't the best team ion the West, SD is. LA lost too much.

I'd like the Cards better if they had a better manager than Tony LaRussa

Hmmm ... my critique has descended into opinion.

2005-03-31 21:16:58
5.   Smed
I look for San Diego to win the NL West.

I think Oakland will rise above and smite all of the Phillistines who do not believe.

I think the Yanks will crumble due to old age and leprosy, or something.

I think the Cubs will win the Central, because He Who Cannot Be Named and his Boot Licking Toady will destroy every arm on their staff.

I pick Philly to win the NL East, because I can't pick the Braves again, I don't like the Marlins philosophy, and I'll never pick the Mets.

Washington is going to be abysmal this year, if Castilla and Guzman get 600 ABs each.

2005-03-31 21:27:52
6.   MRKARNO
Scott,

I wish I could be as optimistic about the White Sox as you, but I simply cannot gauge this team. Myself and a bunch of other White Sox fans whose opinion I respect agree for the most part that this team is really difficult to pin down because of the number of question marks and that it could be a 90 win year or a 75 win year (even the most pessimistic of White Sox fans arent taking Joe Sheehan's prediction of 71 wins too seriously).

I think that either way though that they are certainly a better team than the Tigers, probably as good as Cleveland and with some luck could win the Central. The 4th place predictions really bother me because I just can't see the Tigers as being better than the White Sox except under the worst circumstances. I can see why people would pick the club to finish third though, but I have problems with this "concensus" that Cleveland is a better team. Have people actually looked at their bullpen or at Jake Westbrook's peripheral stats?

But will the Twins really repeat? Will a healthy Joe Mauer really offset their terrible left-side of their middle infield and the possible/likely regressions of Santana, Nathan and Bradke?

The AL Central should be one of the most interesting divisions in baseball this year, more so than most people are predicting right now because the White Sox might be a bigger force than most realize.

Overall, good work with the rankings.

2005-04-01 09:52:10
7.   SaberTJ
The Astros and White Sox ahead of the Indians? And that far of a difference btw the Indians and the Whitesox is ridiculous. Im not sold on the Sox' starting pitching whatsoever, and I certainly wouldnt rely on Guillen's managerial style of bunting and stealing bases. I know the Tribe's pitching is shaky, but their offense if the best in the division and the bullpen isnt going to bed as bad as last yr.
2005-04-01 11:47:50
8.   Graham
White Sox eighth? Come on.
2005-04-01 14:50:46
9.   chris in illinois
Scott,

Brave's 2004:

1. Best team up the middle (C-2b-ss-cf) in the NL.
2. Chipper post all-star .940 OPS...way better than any projections for his 2005 btw.
3. Adam L post all-star: 302/368/576...or 944 ops.
4. Drew was a monster.
5. Everyone always over-rates the Mets.

Regarding the '05 ChiSox:

Could be the worst team in the AL. Their best returning non-Frank hitter had a .361 OB% (Rowand)...the rest...
Uribe: .327
Crede: .299
Everett: .320
Podsednik: .313
Pierzynski: .319
Dye: .329
Japanese Guy:???
Konerko: .359

That is a lot of freakin' outs in front of "29 starts five years ago" Hernandez and Jose "5.50 ERA" Contreras. Who pitches when those guys don't answer the bell?? Neil Cotts??

The Sox should easily be in the bottom ten.

2005-04-02 08:03:20
10.   MRKARNO
Chris, that's totally laughable and I hope everyone here realizes that. "Could be the worst team in the AL"? You apparently dont understand the concept of being the worst team in the league. If you think this team is worse than the Royals, the Devil Rays or the Blue Jays then you haven't actually looked at the respective rosters of these teams.

OBP isn't a strength of this team, but you can't judge a team by listing its OBPs from last year of the players because while past performances do often dictate future ones, there is simply no context for your OBP numbers, such as the fact that Dye was battling injuries all year last year, Pierzynski played at SBC park, an awful park for lefties and Everett was injured for a majority of the year.

You apparently also have not heard of Brandon McCarthy who can pitch if a rotation hole arises. If he gets the chance to pitch for more than half of the season, then he might run away with the Rookie of the Year award and no that's not a fan overstating things. His spring training was amazing, but not entirely out of the blue.

I dont think you can make a good case that this team is going to win less than 75 games at this point in time, unless you think every player is going to underperform their low projections. Even PECOTA pegs the Sox at 82-80, only 5 projected wins below the Twins.

The AL, in my view, is going to be chock full of mediocrity this year and the White Sox will probably not be an exception to this.

2005-04-03 20:51:11
11.   chris in illinois
Wow!!

I did say 'could', right?? Let me check....yep, "Could be the worst team in the AL...". I wouldn't put cash money on that statement, but it seems as though some team unexpectedly craters every year and it could easily be the SOX.

OB% happens to be the biggest factor in scoring runs for any teams' offense (you know, not making outs as much??) and unless you plan on correcting me on this one, the primary job of an offense is to score runs, not hustle or some other nonsense.

No context??

AJ has had one season out of four with an OB% higher than .335, but I suppose he's due to break out that .390 this year. Hell, the only reason his OB%'s are as high as they are is that he's such an ass pitchers enjoy beaning him. As far as SBC being tough on lefties, JT Snow sure didn't get the memo (.429 OB%) in 2004.

Dye?? Last three years, .329, .261(!) and .333...seems like a little mini trend there or has he been hurt for the last 1095 days??

I have heard of McCarthy and he looks to be a special pitcher, but so did Scott Ruffcorn, Jon Rauch, Jim Parque, Aaron Myette, Lorenzo Barcelo, Dan Wright and a zillion other guys on the other 29 teams. Let's let the guy make a few MLB starts before we annoint him anybody's savior.

All I was saying is that to put the SOX at #8 was a tad optimistic. Will they be worse than the D-Rays?? Probably not, but since they could easily struggle to get to 700 runs next year (especially if Frank doesn't play much) the Royals might just pass them, after all some people had the Royals winning the central last year and they certainly 'cratered' in 2004.

My prediction SOX 76-86, worst case 63-99.

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