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Reexamining What I Wrote 4 Years Ago
2008-11-03 19:43
by Scott Long
Notes:
Scott Long is now blogging at NSFWsports.com.
Will Carroll can still be found at Baseball Prospectus.

With the election on the eve of destruction for the Republican Party, I thought I would publish again what I wrote 4 years ago.  The only criticism I have of my analysis is that I wasn't harsh enough on the dire circumstances that the Bush administration and Republican Congress (especially the House) could bring to this nation. 

Winning the 2004 election might not be the best thing in the long run. As much as I believe Bush is a complete idiot, being President of the US the next 4 years will be a lousy job for anyone, as the war and the deficits 43 has run up will make it nearly impossible to govern successfully.

I truly believe that 4 more years of right-wing control will push the country back towards the center by 2008. I expect the economy to continue to falter and the war in Iraq will become more of a quagmire. The American people will wake up to what right-wingers have done to it. I suspect that even the Republican party will have some major dissension in it's ranks, as moderates will expect more economic accountablity, instead of just being pushed to the side by Count Rove (Prince of Darkness).

I would expect the mid-term elections in 2006 will go the Democrats way, if Bush is still in office and we would see the Senate and maybe even the House swing away from Republican control. Many disenchanted Republican house members will tire of the iron-fist of Tom Delay and try hard to push him out of being the Don.

My biggest problem with John Kerry from way back in the primaries is that he doesn't wear well. Now if he becomes President, I can't forsee him being more than a one-term President and the Democratic party will most likely be saddled with a combination of cleaning up the Shrub's mess and having a guy (kerry) at the top of the ticket who doesn't relate well to the American people. This would create an atmosphere where the Democrats would be blamed for the messes Kerry inherited.

Yes, I understand there's a lot at stake during this election: Supreme Court Justices, unfixable deficits, greater diplomatic isolation from the rest of the world, etc., but 4 more years of Bush, Cheney, DeLay and Count Rove running the country will be a deathnell for the current Republican party.

I have just braced myself for the Venom that both sides of the Political fence are going to slam me for this time. Well to that I have just 3 words, BRING.......................IT..................................................ON!
(A phrase Kerry needs to dump. It just magnifies his robotic speech pattern and comes off as cold. Worked for a few weeks, but then so did the phrase "Been there, done that" but now it makes me want to punch someone in the face.)

For the past few years, I have had this piece linked on the side under the title of Kerry Losing Good

 

Comments
2008-11-04 06:38:58
1.   jgpyke
Conservatives don't see Bush as a conservative. He is a big govt Republican, and there is a difference. Anyway, your comments wear well.

I think the eve of the destruction of the Republican party would be 1998, though, when Time or Newsweek (whoever it was) put GWB on the cover and wrote, "The Next President?" It pissed me off then and still pisses me off now.

Congrats, liberals. Your machine finally grew a pair and figured out how to run an election, more or less. Obama should win in a blowout (which makes all the fraud even more silly--you didn't even need it...oh well, election fraud has always been a Democratic strength, even before 1960).

2008-11-04 07:35:24
2.   chris in illinois
The dems do have a long history of voter fraud pre-1960---actually better termed as voter suppression. Of course the worst cases of this were in the deep south keeping the black vote down first by physical intimidation then by 'legal' means. As most of us know, these Southern Democrats turned into Republicans since the mid-sixties and still make efforts in reducing the black vote.

Both parties have long, long histories of election day shenanigans.

1 I'm assuming you're referring to ACORN...I doubt that any of the 'Mickey Mouses' that got registered get to vote.

If GWB was the beginning of the end, Palin will get to serve as executioner over the next few years.

JG, I saw the documentary on Goldwater yesterday and I'm surprised at your admiration for him considering his pro-choice stance. Walter Conkrite who knew him fairly well said he'd be a democrat these days.

2008-11-04 08:21:13
3.   chris in illinois
Just voted...my polling place has paper ballots that are fed into a machine that scans them. It has a running tally on how many ballots have been processed, my ballot was 916. There are only three precincts that poll at my location and I don't think any of them has much more than a 1000 voters. 916 votes at 9:45 in a state that is a forgone conclusion.

Turn-out is going to be huge this year.

2008-11-04 09:18:01
4.   jgpyke
I like my Goldwater in the 60s version. The latter day Goldwater as portrayed in the axe-grinding documentary is hardly the same man who wrote, "The Conscience of a Conservative."

I wouldn't take Cronkite's word on anything. Or maybe Goldwater did turn into an unprincipled simp on his deathbed. I dunno.

Read the book, though. It'll take you an hour or two, tops.

2008-11-04 09:22:09
5.   jgpyke
CIL: to pretend that Dem fraud is limited to Civil Rights Era suppression and ACORN is disingenuous. Daley stole 1960 for JFK. Dead men voting. Homeless voting in multiple precincts. Etc. This is your bread-n-butter.
2008-11-04 09:25:53
6.   chris in illinois
4 I will read the book. It w a s the Goldwater of the 60's who flew his daughter to Washington to get an abortion, right?

I thought that the documentary was pretty even-handed. James freakin' Carville said nice things...

2008-11-04 09:28:58
7.   chris in illinois
5 If the dems win it has to be fraud right?

The GOP never has engaged in tricks 'n' treats...sure.

Let's not insult each other by pretending that we back innocent angels, ok?

2008-11-04 10:07:19
8.   jgpyke
I thought that the documentary was pretty even-handed.

It was revisionist claptrap. In his earlier years (i.e., when he was nationally prominent), we was a social conservative and a fiscal libertarian. In his latter years, he became more of a social libertarian. The abortion thing is troubling, although typically attributed to his wife, FWIW. He did support the Human Life Amendment in 1980.

Even with all his post-govt softening, I still think he's a hero of small govt, rightly revered.

2008-11-04 10:16:22
9.   chris in illinois
Wasn't the doc produced by his grand-daughter??

The people around him that got interviewed seemed to think he thought government should stay out of issues like abortion and civil rights---small government stuff.

2008-11-04 10:40:32
10.   Penarol1916
5. I love when Republicans bring up Daly's machine giving the 1960 election to Kennedy and then fail to account for two facts:

1. There was substantial evidence that there was signficant vote tampering in downstate Illinois by Republican County leaders that was never pursued because Kennedy won the state.

2. Illinois didn't matter because even if Nixon had won the state, Kennedy still would have had 276 electoral votes.

2. Kennedy

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