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A Closer Look at PECOTA Predictions
2008-09-20 20:05
by Scott Long
Notes:
Scott Long is now blogging at NSFWsports.com.
Will Carroll can still be found at Baseball Prospectus.

The best prediction of 2008 was PECOTA's offering that the Devil Rays would win 90 games.  I thought it was crazy and I was way off picking them to win just 75.  Let's look at PECOTA and see how they did on the rest of the AL.

New York Yankees 96 66 881 732 .275 .356 .443
Boston Red Sox 91 71 841 745 .274 .354 .429
Tampa Bay Rays 90 72 804 722 .259 .339 .426
Toronto Blue Jays 77 85 753 773 .266 .331 .422
Baltimore Orioles 67 95 750 881 .262 .329 .414
Central W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Cleveland Indians 92 70 835 742 .267 .343 .438
Detroit Tigers 90 72 842 762 .276 .342 .439
Chicago White Sox 78 84 791 814 .263 .333 .439
Kansas City Royals 73 89 745 823 .271 .332 .408
Minnesota Twins 73 89 713 782 .265 .325 .405
West W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Los Angeles Angels 85 77 809 778 .276 .338 .425
Oakland Athletics 79 83 726 758 .254 .332 .402
Seattle Mariners 76 86 692 745 .264 .323 .399
Texas Rangers 71 91 779 878 .267 .334 .427

Outside of the amazing selection of the Rays winning 90, it hasn't been such a good year for the prediction system.  The Yankees win 96 and win the East by 5 games.  It is hard to fault anyone for going with the Indians to win the Central, but the notion that the Tigers would win 90 games with that bullpen never made any sense to me.  The statistical system still is having a hard time measuring how the Angels can already have won 94 games with 9 left to play. 

My SWOBODA system had these records before the season. 

AL EAST

Boston 92
NY Yankees 89
Toronto 85
Tampa Bay 75
Baltimore 67

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland 92
Detroit 84
Chicago 83
Minnesota 78
Kansas City 75

AL WEST

Los Angeles 89
Oakland 78
Seattle 78
Texas 75

If you look at the overall numbers for each team, there is not much difference in the systems.  Once again, Nate Silver put his neck out there with his Rays number and his system should be congratulated.  Let's just have some perspective on the bigger picture. 

Oh and for all of you that slammed me for being too optimistic about the White Sox and too pessimistic about the Tigers, I apologize for not being more in the extreme on both of them. 

****************

 

Comments
2008-09-20 23:35:25
1.   Xeifrank
Go Rays!!! 150:1 baby! @ $20.
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 09:51:15
2.   Schteeve
I think the fact that offense in general was down this season, confounded the projections.
2008-09-22 18:21:50
3.   Ali Nagib
Wow, Will just posted this over at BP:

http://vegaswatch.net/2008/09/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-2008.html

Sweet, I actually beat everyone, although like them I wasn't nearly pessimistic enough:

http://badaltitude.baseballtoaster.com/archives/924035.html

2008-09-22 19:32:27
4.   Scott Long
Can someone do the math on my American League Predictions versus PECOTA, as this system makes my brain hurt.

http://vegaswatch.net/2008/09/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-2008.html

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