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scott@scottlongonline.com
Following in the tradition of such battles as King Kong vs Godzilla, the Abbott and Costello vs Frankenstein, and Trump vs Rosie, here comes PECOTA vs SWOBODA. Baseball Prospectus put out their Prospectus Hit List today. Now I realize that the rankings are made up of more than just PECOTA, but it is the main component used in ranking the teams.
Usually I think their rankings are pretty good, but this season they are really wacky. Despite the excellent writing talents of Jay Jaffe, the pre-season edition of their Hit List cannot escape the bizarre ratings he has to use. We will see at the end of the year, but I suspect that someone will have to reexamine the PECOTA's engine in November.
I have listed my Top 30, with BP's in parenthesis. Like BP, I don't just grade strictly on record, as the AL is superior to the NL. For example, I suspect the Braves will have more wins than any team other than the Red Sox, but I knock them down to where I think they rate among all of MLB.
Pre-season Top 30
Look at BP's list and 3 thing jump out at me about the biases that PECOTA suffers from.
The offense had three big horsemen, plus Crede who was the better version of Francoeur. Crede's career batting average is .260, so even though he has power he might easily OPS under .800. Dye was amazing last year, but it hard to imagine that he does it again. Thome and Konerko will both be good, but probably not as good as last year. The rest of the lineup is mediocre to terrible.
Obviously the Sox have a lot of upside, since there are a lot of players who have been fantastic in the last few years. But if things break the other way, then they have a lot of question marks in the toughest division in baseball. 72 wins is a tad pessimistic, but I bet they come in fourth. Bullpen or no, the Indians are the team to beat in that division.
The White Sox used to be the Indians before Guillen got there. Big boppers, would look like the team to beat and then would lose to the Twins, as they couldn't win close games. Offense is overrated, as defense and pitching are harder to measure.
As I mentioned, I've never picked the sox to win over the past 5 seasons and I realize this is a strange year to do it. I think they are the only team in the division that can trade for a big contract, so if they are close, I suspect they will do just such a thing, if there is someone out there they need.
27th best team in baseball.
Arizona is the 7th.
Come on, now.
By the way, the Sox last year were a bunch of boppers and they won 90 games.
wojo to swoboda would be a great double play combo.
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