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Time to Congratulate the best Playoff Predictions
2004-10-28 01:25
by Scott Long

I thought it was time to look back, after such a great baseball postseason finished at how the experts stacked up on their pre-playoff prognostication. Well it didn't take long to notice that Scott Long picked every round right. Check out my October 6th post to verify this. Some of my comments from this time period.

"The Red Sox and Twins have a dominant starter that all the NL teams lack. Not one of the NL teams has a top-notch pitching staff, unlike last year with the Cubs and Marlins. The Yankees have a better staff, while the Angels have the best bullpen in baseball."
(Let me remind that I was slammed by almost everyone who responded to my thoughts on this. )

"Woody Williams, Jason Marquis, and a less than prime Matt Morris doesn't strike fear in a playoff situation. I like their team, but I would put 3 wins on board when Santana and Schilling faced them."

From October 12 posting:"Question: Has there ever been a starting staff worse than the Cards, who ended up pitching in the World Series? Marquis, Williams, Suppan, and a struggling Matt Morris is not what usually puts you in the World Series."

The only NL playoff starting pitcher who had dynamite stats was Clemens and I never felt he would cause problems for AL hitters, as he hadn't pitched this well in the AL since 1998. I do think Oswalt would have caused problems, but the rest of the Astros staff wasn't on that level.

Now I know that there is luck involved in this, as the Red Sox making it past the Yankees is not something I can come off cocky about, but the stats in the World Series really made me appear prescient.
Cardinal Starting Pitchers: 17 innings, 39 baserunners, 18 earned runs.
Red Sox Starting Pitchers: 23 innings, 22 baserunners, 5 earned runs. (Take out Wakefield's start and the numbers were a completely dominating: 20 innings, 14 baserunners, 0 earned runs.)

Now I know there is luck involved and not all my analysis was perfect, but since I was slammed by so many, I thought I would mention that Scoreboard is a wonderful thing. (I will not list the names of those I'm talking about, but you know who you are.) Next year, I'm sure will be a whole different outcome for me, but right now I'm going to bask.

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